Jerônimo Rodrigues holds a narrow 52% implied probability as incumbent governor in Bahia's tight 2026 race, buoyed by PT's traditional stronghold in the Northeast and 54% approval ratings, despite recent Paraná Pesquisas (May 10-12) showing challenger ACM Neto ahead 47.8%-38.7% in stimulated first-round polls amid Jerônimo's 37% rejection. The contest remains deadlocked by polarized voters, Salvador's urban opposition versus rural PT loyalty, and high spontaneous undecideds (47%). Separation could arise from June candidate registrations, coalition formations, national presidential coattails, or fresh polling; traders price a potential October 4 first-round or October 25 runoff showdown.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоJerônimo Rodrigues 52%
ACM Neto 48%
Kleber Rosa <1%
João Roma <1%
$13,694 Объем
$13,694 Объем
4 окт. 2026 г.
Jerônimo Rodrigues
52%
ACM Neto
48%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
João Roma
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 52%
ACM Neto 48%
Kleber Rosa <1%
João Roma <1%
$13,694 Объем
$13,694 Объем
4 окт. 2026 г.
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$3,666 Объем
52%
ACM Neto
$3,660 Объем
48%
Kleber Rosa
$1,281 Объем
<1%
João Roma
$966 Объем
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$1,060 Объем
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
$1,938 Объем
<1%
Rui Costa
$1,124 Объем
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Jerônimo Rodrigues holds a narrow 52% implied probability as incumbent governor in Bahia's tight 2026 race, buoyed by PT's traditional stronghold in the Northeast and 54% approval ratings, despite recent Paraná Pesquisas (May 10-12) showing challenger ACM Neto ahead 47.8%-38.7% in stimulated first-round polls amid Jerônimo's 37% rejection. The contest remains deadlocked by polarized voters, Salvador's urban opposition versus rural PT loyalty, and high spontaneous undecideds (47%). Separation could arise from June candidate registrations, coalition formations, national presidential coattails, or fresh polling; traders price a potential October 4 first-round or October 25 runoff showdown.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Открытие рынка: Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Объем
$13,694Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Jerônimo Rodrigues holds a narrow 52% implied probability as incumbent governor in Bahia's tight 2026 race, buoyed by PT's traditional stronghold in the Northeast and 54% approval ratings, despite recent Paraná Pesquisas (May 10-12) showing challenger ACM Neto ahead 47.8%-38.7% in stimulated first-round polls amid Jerônimo's 37% rejection. The contest remains deadlocked by polarized voters, Salvador's urban opposition versus rural PT loyalty, and high spontaneous undecideds (47%). Separation could arise from June candidate registrations, coalition formations, national presidential coattails, or fresh polling; traders price a potential October 4 first-round or October 25 runoff showdown.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Объем
$13,694Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Jerônimo Rodrigues holds a narrow 52% implied probability as incumbent governor in Bahia's tight 2026 race, buoyed by PT's traditional stronghold in the Northeast and 54% approval ratings, despite recent Paraná Pesquisas (May 10-12) showing challenger ACM Neto ahead 47.8%-38.7% in stimulated first-round polls amid Jerônimo's 37% rejection. The contest remains deadlocked by polarized voters, Salvador's urban opposition versus rural PT loyalty, and high spontaneous undecideds (47%). Separation could arise from June candidate registrations, coalition formations, national presidential coattails, or fresh polling; traders price a potential October 4 first-round or October 25 runoff showdown.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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