Augusto Cury, the Avante nominee and political outsider, has consolidated third place in Brazil's October 4 first-round presidential contest behind Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro. Recent national polls, including Quaest surveys from early to mid-September, place his first-round support at 7-10 percent after a late-August surge driven by television appearances, social media reach, and voter interest in an alternative to the dominant polarization. That momentum has produced the market's leading probabilities around the 4-8 percent band, with traders assigning the highest weight to outcomes above 6 percent. Cury's positioning as a non-polarizing option has drawn support mainly from independents, though his ceiling remains constrained by the frontrunners' combined share near 67 percent and the short time left before voting.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено2-4% 25%
4-6% 19%
<1% 18%
1-2% 15%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
4 окт. 2026 г.
<1%
18%
1-2%
15%
2-4%
28%
4-6%
19%
6%+
44%
2-4% 25%
4-6% 19%
<1% 18%
1-2% 15%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
4 окт. 2026 г.
<1%
$0 Объем
18%
1-2%
$20 Объем
15%
2-4%
$17 Объем
28%
4-6%
$0 Объем
19%
6%+
$6 Объем
44%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Augusto Cury in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Augusto Cury, the Avante nominee and political outsider, has consolidated third place in Brazil's October 4 first-round presidential contest behind Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro. Recent national polls, including Quaest surveys from early to mid-September, place his first-round support at 7-10 percent after a late-August surge driven by television appearances, social media reach, and voter interest in an alternative to the dominant polarization. That momentum has produced the market's leading probabilities around the 4-8 percent band, with traders assigning the highest weight to outcomes above 6 percent. Cury's positioning as a non-polarizing option has drawn support mainly from independents, though his ceiling remains constrained by the frontrunners' combined share near 67 percent and the short time left before voting.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Augusto Cury in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Augusto Cury in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Открытие рынка: Sep 15, 2026, 10:28 PM ET
Объем
$44Дата окончания
5 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 15, 2026, 10:28 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Augusto Cury in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Augusto Cury, the Avante nominee and political outsider, has consolidated third place in Brazil's October 4 first-round presidential contest behind Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro. Recent national polls, including Quaest surveys from early to mid-September, place his first-round support at 7-10 percent after a late-August surge driven by television appearances, social media reach, and voter interest in an alternative to the dominant polarization. That momentum has produced the market's leading probabilities around the 4-8 percent band, with traders assigning the highest weight to outcomes above 6 percent. Cury's positioning as a non-polarizing option has drawn support mainly from independents, though his ceiling remains constrained by the frontrunners' combined share near 67 percent and the short time left before voting.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Augusto Cury in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Augusto Cury in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Объем
$44Дата окончания
5 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 15, 2026, 10:28 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Augusto Cury, the Avante nominee and political outsider, has consolidated third place in Brazil's October 4 first-round presidential contest behind Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro. Recent national polls, including Quaest surveys from early to mid-September, place his first-round support at 7-10 percent after a late-August surge driven by television appearances, social media reach, and voter interest in an alternative to the dominant polarization. That momentum has produced the market's leading probabilities around the 4-8 percent band, with traders assigning the highest weight to outcomes above 6 percent. Cury's positioning as a non-polarizing option has drawn support mainly from independents, though his ceiling remains constrained by the frontrunners' combined share near 67 percent and the short time left before voting.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Наберёт ли Флавио Болсонару 39% или более действительных голосов в первом туре президентских выборов в Бразилии в 2026 году?
39%
Да
Получит ли Ренан Сантос от 2% до 4% действительных голосов в первом туре президентских выборов в Бразилии 2026 года?
42%
Да
Наберёт ли Лула 44% или больше действительных голосов в первом туре президентских выборов в Бразилии в 2026 году?
40%
Да
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