Sweden’s September 13 parliamentary election produced a narrow opposition victory in seat distribution, with the Red-Green bloc (Social Democrats, Left, Greens and Centre) projected at 175–176 seats in the 349-seat Riksdag against 173–174 for the Tidö parties (Moderates, Sweden Democrats, Christian Democrats and Liberals). Late-arriving domestic and overseas ballots narrowed the gap to as little as one seat during counting, yet SVT’s model assessed the probability of a Tidö reversal at under 0.1 percent once 99 percent of votes were tallied. Pre-election polling had shown the opposition maintaining a consistent though shrinking aggregate lead since mid-year, translating under Sweden’s proportional system into a small but decisive seat edge. Remaining supplementary counts and final validation by county boards could still adjust totals by one or two mandates, though current projections indicate minimal risk of altering the three-to-four seat margin favored by traders.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоОппозиция: 3–4 96.7%
Оппозиция на 1–2 1.5%
Тидё: перевес 1–2 <1%
Оппозиция с перевесом в 5–6 <1%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 сент. 2026 г.
Оппозиция на 7+ мест
<1%
Оппозиция с перевесом в 5–6
<1%
Оппозиция: 3–4
97%
Оппозиция на 1–2
1%
Тидё: перевес 1–2
1%
Тидё с перевесом в 3–4
<1%
Тидё с разницей 5+
<1%
Оппозиция: 3–4 96.7%
Оппозиция на 1–2 1.5%
Тидё: перевес 1–2 <1%
Оппозиция с перевесом в 5–6 <1%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 сент. 2026 г.
Оппозиция на 7+ мест
$710 Объем
<1%
Оппозиция с перевесом в 5–6
$205 Объем
<1%
Оппозиция: 3–4
$2,359 Объем
97%
Оппозиция на 1–2
$1,807 Объем
1%
Тидё: перевес 1–2
$838 Объем
1%
Тидё с перевесом в 3–4
$426 Объем
<1%
Тидё с разницей 5+
$29 Объем
<1%
Parliamentary elections were held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats won in the Riksdag between the Tidö parties and the opposition parties in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election.
For the purposes of this market, the “Tidö parties” are the four signatories of the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet): the Sweden Democrats (SD), the Moderate Party (M), the Christian Democrats (KD), and the Liberals (L).
For the purposes of this market, the “opposition parties” are the Social Democrats (S), the Left Party (V), the Green Party (MP), and the Centre Party (C).
Seats will be counted only where the final results attribute them to one of the eight named parties. Seats won by any party other than the eight named above will count toward neither group, regardless of any subsequent cooperation, endorsement, confidence agreement, or parliamentary-group arrangement.
If the Tidö parties and the opposition parties win an equal number of seats, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the final results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the final results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Sweden’s September 13 parliamentary election produced a narrow opposition victory in seat distribution, with the Red-Green bloc (Social Democrats, Left, Greens and Centre) projected at 175–176 seats in the 349-seat Riksdag against 173–174 for the Tidö parties (Moderates, Sweden Democrats, Christian Democrats and Liberals). Late-arriving domestic and overseas ballots narrowed the gap to as little as one seat during counting, yet SVT’s model assessed the probability of a Tidö reversal at under 0.1 percent once 99 percent of votes were tallied. Pre-election polling had shown the opposition maintaining a consistent though shrinking aggregate lead since mid-year, translating under Sweden’s proportional system into a small but decisive seat edge. Remaining supplementary counts and final validation by county boards could still adjust totals by one or two mandates, though current projections indicate minimal risk of altering the three-to-four seat margin favored by traders.
Parliamentary elections were held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats won in the Riksdag between the Tidö parties and the opposition parties in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election.
For the purposes of this market, the “Tidö parties” are the four signatories of the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet): the Sweden Democrats (SD), the Moderate Party (M), the Christian Democrats (KD), and the Liberals (L).
For the purposes of this market, the “opposition parties” are the Social Democrats (S), the Left Party (V), the Green Party (MP), and the Centre Party (C).
Seats will be counted only where the final results attribute them to one of the eight named parties. Seats won by any party other than the eight named above will count toward neither group, regardless of any subsequent cooperation, endorsement, confidence agreement, or parliamentary-group arrangement.
If the Tidö parties and the opposition parties win an equal number of seats, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the final results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the final results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats won in the Riksdag between the Tidö parties and the opposition parties in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election.
For the purposes of this market, the “Tidö parties” are the four signatories of the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet): the Sweden Democrats (SD), the Moderate Party (M), the Christian Democrats (KD), and the Liberals (L).
For the purposes of this market, the “opposition parties” are the Social Democrats (S), the Left Party (V), the Green Party (MP), and the Centre Party (C).
Seats will be counted only where the final results attribute them to one of the eight named parties. Seats won by any party other than the eight named above will count toward neither group, regardless of any subsequent cooperation, endorsement, confidence agreement, or parliamentary-group arrangement.
If the Tidö parties and the opposition parties win an equal number of seats, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the final results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the final results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Открытие рынка: Sep 16, 2026, 12:25 PM ET
Объем
$6,374Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 16, 2026, 12:25 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections were held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats won in the Riksdag between the Tidö parties and the opposition parties in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election.
For the purposes of this market, the “Tidö parties” are the four signatories of the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet): the Sweden Democrats (SD), the Moderate Party (M), the Christian Democrats (KD), and the Liberals (L).
For the purposes of this market, the “opposition parties” are the Social Democrats (S), the Left Party (V), the Green Party (MP), and the Centre Party (C).
Seats will be counted only where the final results attribute them to one of the eight named parties. Seats won by any party other than the eight named above will count toward neither group, regardless of any subsequent cooperation, endorsement, confidence agreement, or parliamentary-group arrangement.
If the Tidö parties and the opposition parties win an equal number of seats, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the final results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the final results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Sweden’s September 13 parliamentary election produced a narrow opposition victory in seat distribution, with the Red-Green bloc (Social Democrats, Left, Greens and Centre) projected at 175–176 seats in the 349-seat Riksdag against 173–174 for the Tidö parties (Moderates, Sweden Democrats, Christian Democrats and Liberals). Late-arriving domestic and overseas ballots narrowed the gap to as little as one seat during counting, yet SVT’s model assessed the probability of a Tidö reversal at under 0.1 percent once 99 percent of votes were tallied. Pre-election polling had shown the opposition maintaining a consistent though shrinking aggregate lead since mid-year, translating under Sweden’s proportional system into a small but decisive seat edge. Remaining supplementary counts and final validation by county boards could still adjust totals by one or two mandates, though current projections indicate minimal risk of altering the three-to-four seat margin favored by traders.
Parliamentary elections were held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats won in the Riksdag between the Tidö parties and the opposition parties in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election.
For the purposes of this market, the “Tidö parties” are the four signatories of the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet): the Sweden Democrats (SD), the Moderate Party (M), the Christian Democrats (KD), and the Liberals (L).
For the purposes of this market, the “opposition parties” are the Social Democrats (S), the Left Party (V), the Green Party (MP), and the Centre Party (C).
Seats will be counted only where the final results attribute them to one of the eight named parties. Seats won by any party other than the eight named above will count toward neither group, regardless of any subsequent cooperation, endorsement, confidence agreement, or parliamentary-group arrangement.
If the Tidö parties and the opposition parties win an equal number of seats, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the final results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the final results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats won in the Riksdag between the Tidö parties and the opposition parties in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election.
For the purposes of this market, the “Tidö parties” are the four signatories of the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet): the Sweden Democrats (SD), the Moderate Party (M), the Christian Democrats (KD), and the Liberals (L).
For the purposes of this market, the “opposition parties” are the Social Democrats (S), the Left Party (V), the Green Party (MP), and the Centre Party (C).
Seats will be counted only where the final results attribute them to one of the eight named parties. Seats won by any party other than the eight named above will count toward neither group, regardless of any subsequent cooperation, endorsement, confidence agreement, or parliamentary-group arrangement.
If the Tidö parties and the opposition parties win an equal number of seats, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the final results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the final results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Объем
$6,374Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 16, 2026, 12:25 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Sweden’s September 13 parliamentary election produced a narrow opposition victory in seat distribution, with the Red-Green bloc (Social Democrats, Left, Greens and Centre) projected at 175–176 seats in the 349-seat Riksdag against 173–174 for the Tidö parties (Moderates, Sweden Democrats, Christian Democrats and Liberals). Late-arriving domestic and overseas ballots narrowed the gap to as little as one seat during counting, yet SVT’s model assessed the probability of a Tidö reversal at under 0.1 percent once 99 percent of votes were tallied. Pre-election polling had shown the opposition maintaining a consistent though shrinking aggregate lead since mid-year, translating under Sweden’s proportional system into a small but decisive seat edge. Remaining supplementary counts and final validation by county boards could still adjust totals by one or two mandates, though current projections indicate minimal risk of altering the three-to-four seat margin favored by traders.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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