**Recent polling shows a fragmented field ahead of Berlin's September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, with Die Linke, CDU, AfD, and the Greens clustered between roughly 16% and 23%, while the SPD trails and smaller parties hover near the 5% threshold.** This tight distribution, combined with 78 direct constituencies and the mixed-member proportional system that generates overhang and leveling seats when parties overperform locally relative to their Zweitstimmen share, drives expectations of substantial growth beyond the 130-seat minimum. The 2023 repeat election reached 159 seats under similar dynamics; current projections and trader positioning on 163+ reflect the potential for even greater expansion given the competitive multi-party contest and new rules extending the franchise to 16- and 17-year-olds. Small shifts in constituency results or turnout could alter the final total, keeping outcomes across the 143–163+ range viable until results are finalized.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено163+ 35%
143–147 15%
153–157 14%
158–162 13%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
20 сент. 2026 г.
<143
11%
143–147
15%
148–152
6%
153–157
14%
158–162
13%
163+
35%
163+ 35%
143–147 15%
153–157 14%
158–162 13%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
20 сент. 2026 г.
<143
$1,849 Объем
11%
143–147
$1,607 Объем
15%
148–152
$290 Объем
6%
153–157
$386 Объем
14%
158–162
$1,101 Объем
13%
163+
$947 Объем
35%
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Recent polling shows a fragmented field ahead of Berlin's September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, with Die Linke, CDU, AfD, and the Greens clustered between roughly 16% and 23%, while the SPD trails and smaller parties hover near the 5% threshold.** This tight distribution, combined with 78 direct constituencies and the mixed-member proportional system that generates overhang and leveling seats when parties overperform locally relative to their Zweitstimmen share, drives expectations of substantial growth beyond the 130-seat minimum. The 2023 repeat election reached 159 seats under similar dynamics; current projections and trader positioning on 163+ reflect the potential for even greater expansion given the competitive multi-party contest and new rules extending the franchise to 16- and 17-year-olds. Small shifts in constituency results or turnout could alter the final total, keeping outcomes across the 143–163+ range viable until results are finalized.
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ET
Объем
$6,180Дата окончания
20 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Recent polling shows a fragmented field ahead of Berlin's September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, with Die Linke, CDU, AfD, and the Greens clustered between roughly 16% and 23%, while the SPD trails and smaller parties hover near the 5% threshold.** This tight distribution, combined with 78 direct constituencies and the mixed-member proportional system that generates overhang and leveling seats when parties overperform locally relative to their Zweitstimmen share, drives expectations of substantial growth beyond the 130-seat minimum. The 2023 repeat election reached 159 seats under similar dynamics; current projections and trader positioning on 163+ reflect the potential for even greater expansion given the competitive multi-party contest and new rules extending the franchise to 16- and 17-year-olds. Small shifts in constituency results or turnout could alter the final total, keeping outcomes across the 143–163+ range viable until results are finalized.
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$6,180Дата окончания
20 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...**Recent polling shows a fragmented field ahead of Berlin's September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, with Die Linke, CDU, AfD, and the Greens clustered between roughly 16% and 23%, while the SPD trails and smaller parties hover near the 5% threshold.** This tight distribution, combined with 78 direct constituencies and the mixed-member proportional system that generates overhang and leveling seats when parties overperform locally relative to their Zweitstimmen share, drives expectations of substantial growth beyond the 130-seat minimum. The 2023 repeat election reached 159 seats under similar dynamics; current projections and trader positioning on 163+ reflect the potential for even greater expansion given the competitive multi-party contest and new rules extending the franchise to 16- and 17-year-olds. Small shifts in constituency results or turnout could alter the final total, keeping outcomes across the 143–163+ range viable until results are finalized.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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