Recent polls for the September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election show a tight multi-party contest, with the AfD at 17–19 percent alongside the Linke, CDU, and Greens. This positioning reflects the AfD’s steady gains from its 2023 result amid national trends favoring the party on immigration and security issues, offset by competition from the Linke in eastern districts and the CDU’s incumbency advantages. Trader ranges cluster around 23–34 seats because small vote-share swings of 2–4 points—common in final campaign weeks—can shift AfD outcomes by several mandates under Berlin’s mixed-member proportional system. Late polling shifts, turnout differentials between districts, or events altering coalition signals could widen the distribution before election night.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено26-28 24%
32-34 23%
29-31 19%
23-25 16.9%
$12,765 Объем
$12,765 Объем
20 сент. 2026 г.
<20
4%
20-22
6%
23-25
18%
26-28
24%
29-31
17%
32-34
23%
35+
11%
26-28 24%
32-34 23%
29-31 19%
23-25 16.9%
$12,765 Объем
$12,765 Объем
20 сент. 2026 г.
<20
$1,025 Объем
4%
20-22
$4,035 Объем
6%
23-25
$1,347 Объем
18%
26-28
$2,110 Объем
24%
29-31
$424 Объем
17%
32-34
$286 Объем
23%
35+
$3,537 Объем
11%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls for the September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election show a tight multi-party contest, with the AfD at 17–19 percent alongside the Linke, CDU, and Greens. This positioning reflects the AfD’s steady gains from its 2023 result amid national trends favoring the party on immigration and security issues, offset by competition from the Linke in eastern districts and the CDU’s incumbency advantages. Trader ranges cluster around 23–34 seats because small vote-share swings of 2–4 points—common in final campaign weeks—can shift AfD outcomes by several mandates under Berlin’s mixed-member proportional system. Late polling shifts, turnout differentials between districts, or events altering coalition signals could widen the distribution before election night.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Открытие рынка: Aug 6, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Объем
$12,765Дата окончания
20 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 6, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls for the September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election show a tight multi-party contest, with the AfD at 17–19 percent alongside the Linke, CDU, and Greens. This positioning reflects the AfD’s steady gains from its 2023 result amid national trends favoring the party on immigration and security issues, offset by competition from the Linke in eastern districts and the CDU’s incumbency advantages. Trader ranges cluster around 23–34 seats because small vote-share swings of 2–4 points—common in final campaign weeks—can shift AfD outcomes by several mandates under Berlin’s mixed-member proportional system. Late polling shifts, turnout differentials between districts, or events altering coalition signals could widen the distribution before election night.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Объем
$12,765Дата окончания
20 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 6, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls for the September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election show a tight multi-party contest, with the AfD at 17–19 percent alongside the Linke, CDU, and Greens. This positioning reflects the AfD’s steady gains from its 2023 result amid national trends favoring the party on immigration and security issues, offset by competition from the Linke in eastern districts and the CDU’s incumbency advantages. Trader ranges cluster around 23–34 seats because small vote-share swings of 2–4 points—common in final campaign weeks—can shift AfD outcomes by several mandates under Berlin’s mixed-member proportional system. Late polling shifts, turnout differentials between districts, or events altering coalition signals could widen the distribution before election night.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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