The closely contested 50% implied probability for higher turnout in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern’s September 20 Landtag election reflects competing mobilization dynamics ahead of a polarized contest. AfD leads recent polls near 36% while the governing SPD trails at around 29%, with other parties clustered near the 5% threshold, prompting speculation over anti-AfD countermobilization versus AfD supporter engagement. Recent state elections elsewhere in Germany showed turnout rising several points, driven by similar high-stakes coalition questions and first-time voters. Key variables that could shift probabilities include final-week campaign intensity, media focus on coalition scenarios, or last-minute polling shifts that alter perceptions of competitiveness, alongside standard factors such as weather and procedural turnout efforts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПарламентские выборы в Мекленбурге-Передней Померании: явка вверх или вниз?
Парламентские выборы в Мекленбурге-Передней Померании: явка вверх или вниз?
Выросла
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
20 сент. 2026 г.
Выросла
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
20 сент. 2026 г.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 70.8%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 70.8%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 70.8%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleitung Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/) and the Statistisches Amt Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Statistik/).The closely contested 50% implied probability for higher turnout in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern’s September 20 Landtag election reflects competing mobilization dynamics ahead of a polarized contest. AfD leads recent polls near 36% while the governing SPD trails at around 29%, with other parties clustered near the 5% threshold, prompting speculation over anti-AfD countermobilization versus AfD supporter engagement. Recent state elections elsewhere in Germany showed turnout rising several points, driven by similar high-stakes coalition questions and first-time voters. Key variables that could shift probabilities include final-week campaign intensity, media focus on coalition scenarios, or last-minute polling shifts that alter perceptions of competitiveness, alongside standard factors such as weather and procedural turnout efforts.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 70.8%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 70.8%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 70.8%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleitung Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/) and the Statistisches Amt Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Statistik/).
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 70.8%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 70.8%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 70.8%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleitung Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/) and the Statistisches Amt Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Statistik/).
Открытие рынка: Aug 6, 2026, 8:47 PM ET
Объем
$0Дата окончания
20 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 6, 2026, 8:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 70.8%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 70.8%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 70.8%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleitung Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/) and the Statistisches Amt Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Statistik/).The closely contested 50% implied probability for higher turnout in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern’s September 20 Landtag election reflects competing mobilization dynamics ahead of a polarized contest. AfD leads recent polls near 36% while the governing SPD trails at around 29%, with other parties clustered near the 5% threshold, prompting speculation over anti-AfD countermobilization versus AfD supporter engagement. Recent state elections elsewhere in Germany showed turnout rising several points, driven by similar high-stakes coalition questions and first-time voters. Key variables that could shift probabilities include final-week campaign intensity, media focus on coalition scenarios, or last-minute polling shifts that alter perceptions of competitiveness, alongside standard factors such as weather and procedural turnout efforts.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 70.8%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 70.8%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 70.8%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleitung Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/) and the Statistisches Amt Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Statistik/).
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 70.8%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 70.8%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 70.8%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleitung Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/) and the Statistisches Amt Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (https://www.laiv-mv.de/Statistik/).
Объем
$0Дата окончания
20 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 6, 2026, 8:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The closely contested 50% implied probability for higher turnout in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern’s September 20 Landtag election reflects competing mobilization dynamics ahead of a polarized contest. AfD leads recent polls near 36% while the governing SPD trails at around 29%, with other parties clustered near the 5% threshold, prompting speculation over anti-AfD countermobilization versus AfD supporter engagement. Recent state elections elsewhere in Germany showed turnout rising several points, driven by similar high-stakes coalition questions and first-time voters. Key variables that could shift probabilities include final-week campaign intensity, media focus on coalition scenarios, or last-minute polling shifts that alter perceptions of competitiveness, alongside standard factors such as weather and procedural turnout efforts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Получит ли ХДС второе место по количеству мест на парламентских выборах в Мекленбурге-Передней Померании в 2026 году?
34%
Да
Will SPD win fewer than 18 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
34%
Получит ли ХДС третье по количеству место на парламентских выборах 2026 года в Мекленбурге-Передней Померании?
34%
Да
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы