In Arkansas's 1st congressional district, trader consensus around 50% probabilities for leading candidates reflects the district's entrenched Republican lean and limited recent polling shifts, with the incumbent facing a Democratic challenger in a race rated solid Republican by forecasters. Historical margins exceeding 25 points, low Democratic turnout in the rural northeast Arkansas electorate, and absence of major scandals or national wave dynamics have kept implied victory probabilities balanced near even on select outcomes while favoring Republican margins in the 30-35% range at 45.5%. Upcoming general election developments such as candidate debates, fundraising reports, or shifts in national midterm sentiment could widen separation, though the 12% probability on a Democratic win underscores structural barriers like voter registration advantages and past performance in similar districts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоAR-01 Маржа победы на выборах в Палату представителей
AR-01 Маржа победы на выборах в Палату представителей
Республиканец 30-35% 48%
Республиканцы 50-55% 35%
Республиканец 45-50% 33%
Республиканец 40-45% 33%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканец 55%+
20%
Республиканцы 50-55%
35%
Республиканец 45-50%
33%
Республиканец 40-45%
33%
Республиканец 35-40%
33%
Республиканец 30-35%
48%
Республиканец 25-30%
33%
Республиканец 15-25%
33%
Республиканец 0-15%
33%
Победа демократа
12%
Республиканец 30-35% 48%
Республиканцы 50-55% 35%
Республиканец 45-50% 33%
Республиканец 40-45% 33%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканец 55%+
$0 Объем
20%
Республиканцы 50-55%
$0 Объем
35%
Республиканец 45-50%
$0 Объем
33%
Республиканец 40-45%
$0 Объем
33%
Республиканец 35-40%
$0 Объем
33%
Республиканец 30-35%
$0 Объем
48%
Республиканец 25-30%
$0 Объем
33%
Республиканец 15-25%
$0 Объем
33%
Республиканец 0-15%
$0 Объем
33%
Победа демократа
$42 Объем
12%
The 2026 AR-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AR-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.In Arkansas's 1st congressional district, trader consensus around 50% probabilities for leading candidates reflects the district's entrenched Republican lean and limited recent polling shifts, with the incumbent facing a Democratic challenger in a race rated solid Republican by forecasters. Historical margins exceeding 25 points, low Democratic turnout in the rural northeast Arkansas electorate, and absence of major scandals or national wave dynamics have kept implied victory probabilities balanced near even on select outcomes while favoring Republican margins in the 30-35% range at 45.5%. Upcoming general election developments such as candidate debates, fundraising reports, or shifts in national midterm sentiment could widen separation, though the 12% probability on a Democratic win underscores structural barriers like voter registration advantages and past performance in similar districts.
The 2026 AR-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AR-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AR-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Aug 6, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Объем
$42Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 6, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 AR-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AR-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.In Arkansas's 1st congressional district, trader consensus around 50% probabilities for leading candidates reflects the district's entrenched Republican lean and limited recent polling shifts, with the incumbent facing a Democratic challenger in a race rated solid Republican by forecasters. Historical margins exceeding 25 points, low Democratic turnout in the rural northeast Arkansas electorate, and absence of major scandals or national wave dynamics have kept implied victory probabilities balanced near even on select outcomes while favoring Republican margins in the 30-35% range at 45.5%. Upcoming general election developments such as candidate debates, fundraising reports, or shifts in national midterm sentiment could widen separation, though the 12% probability on a Democratic win underscores structural barriers like voter registration advantages and past performance in similar districts.
The 2026 AR-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AR-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AR-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$42Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 6, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...In Arkansas's 1st congressional district, trader consensus around 50% probabilities for leading candidates reflects the district's entrenched Republican lean and limited recent polling shifts, with the incumbent facing a Democratic challenger in a race rated solid Republican by forecasters. Historical margins exceeding 25 points, low Democratic turnout in the rural northeast Arkansas electorate, and absence of major scandals or national wave dynamics have kept implied victory probabilities balanced near even on select outcomes while favoring Republican margins in the 30-35% range at 45.5%. Upcoming general election developments such as candidate debates, fundraising reports, or shifts in national midterm sentiment could widen separation, though the 12% probability on a Democratic win underscores structural barriers like voter registration advantages and past performance in similar districts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AR-02 House election by 25% or more?
33%
Выиграет ли кандидат от Республиканской партии выборы в Палату представителей по округу AR-03 в 2026 году с разницей в 30%-35%?
34%
Да
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AR-04 House election by 40%-45%?
46%
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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