Democrats hold a consistent edge in forecasts for the 2026 House elections, driven by historical midterm patterns where the president's party typically loses seats, recent polling averages showing a Democratic national advantage of roughly 6-7 points, and a narrow current GOP majority that requires only modest net gains for a flip. This positioning underpins Hakeem Jeffries's 76% share as the leading outcome, reflecting his role as House Minority Leader and broad party support for his elevation should Democrats secure the majority on November 3. Among Republicans, Mike Johnson's 8.3% reflects the lower odds of retaining the speakership amid expected seat losses, while alternatives such as Steve Scalise and Jim Jordan trail due to internal caucus dynamics and the same electoral headwinds. Katherine Clark and Pete Aguilar register lower probabilities as potential Democratic successors if leadership transitions occur post-election.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоSpeaker of the House after the midterms?
Hakeem Jeffries 76%
Mike Johnson 16.7%
Katherine Clark 8.8%
Steve Scalise 6.8%

Hakeem Jeffries
76%

Katherine Clark
10%

Pete Aguilar
2%

Jim Jordan
6%

Steve Scalise
7%

Mike Johnson
11%
Hakeem Jeffries 76%
Mike Johnson 16.7%
Katherine Clark 8.8%
Steve Scalise 6.8%

Hakeem Jeffries
76%

Katherine Clark
10%

Pete Aguilar
2%

Jim Jordan
6%

Steve Scalise
7%

Mike Johnson
11%
The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Apr 8, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Democrats hold a consistent edge in forecasts for the 2026 House elections, driven by historical midterm patterns where the president's party typically loses seats, recent polling averages showing a Democratic national advantage of roughly 6-7 points, and a narrow current GOP majority that requires only modest net gains for a flip. This positioning underpins Hakeem Jeffries's 76% share as the leading outcome, reflecting his role as House Minority Leader and broad party support for his elevation should Democrats secure the majority on November 3. Among Republicans, Mike Johnson's 8.3% reflects the lower odds of retaining the speakership amid expected seat losses, while alternatives such as Steve Scalise and Jim Jordan trail due to internal caucus dynamics and the same electoral headwinds. Katherine Clark and Pete Aguilar register lower probabilities as potential Democratic successors if leadership transitions occur post-election.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено



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