Aisha Wahab holds an 84% implied probability in the CA-14 special election runoff scheduled for August 18, reflecting her commanding 42.8% finish in the June 16 primary that advanced her and Melissa Hernandez as the top two finishers. The district's heavily Democratic voter base favors the state senator's established name recognition and prior congressional candidacy over the BART board member's profile, despite both candidates' strong local ties. With five days remaining, final campaign efforts center on turnout among core Democratic voters, though no late developments have narrowed the gap enough to alter trader consensus on the outcome. The low single-digit shares for other listed candidates align with their earlier elimination.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоCA-14 Special Election Winner?
Aisha Wahab 84%
Melissa Hernandez 14.4%
Carin Elam <1%
Wendy Huang <1%
$24,505 Объем
$24,505 Объем
Aisha Wahab
84%
Melissa Hernandez
14%
Wendy Huang
1%
Carin Elam
1%
Matt Ortega
<1%
Rakhi Israni Singh
<1%
Victor Aguilar Jr.
<1%
Aisha Wahab 84%
Melissa Hernandez 14.4%
Carin Elam <1%
Wendy Huang <1%
$24,505 Объем
$24,505 Объем
Aisha Wahab
84%
Melissa Hernandez
14%
Wendy Huang
1%
Carin Elam
1%
Matt Ortega
<1%
Rakhi Israni Singh
<1%
Victor Aguilar Jr.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.
This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Открытие рынка: Apr 16, 2026, 1:41 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.
This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Aisha Wahab holds an 84% implied probability in the CA-14 special election runoff scheduled for August 18, reflecting her commanding 42.8% finish in the June 16 primary that advanced her and Melissa Hernandez as the top two finishers. The district's heavily Democratic voter base favors the state senator's established name recognition and prior congressional candidacy over the BART board member's profile, despite both candidates' strong local ties. With five days remaining, final campaign efforts center on turnout among core Democratic voters, though no late developments have narrowed the gap enough to alter trader consensus on the outcome. The low single-digit shares for other listed candidates align with their earlier elimination.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено

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