Recent polling averages place Democrat Abdul El-Sayed narrowly ahead of Republican Mike Rogers by roughly 2 points among likely voters, with most surveys falling inside the margin of error and producing consistent single-digit spreads. The open-seat contest in a state carried by President Trump in 2024 has kept the race competitive, as El-Sayed’s narrow primary victory over Haley Stevens and Rogers’ prior near-miss have limited either candidate’s ability to build a durable lead. Early voting begins in roughly a month, while voter concerns over the economy, healthcare, and candidate favorability ratings—both net negative—continue to suppress separation. These factors align with trader pricing that assigns roughly even probability to narrow wins for either side and clusters the highest probabilities on 0–9 point margins.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоМаржа победы на выборах в Сенат Мичигана
Маржа победы на выборах в Сенат Мичигана
Эль-Саид 3-6% 22%
Эль-Саид 6-9% 16%
Эль-Сайед 0-3% 16%
Роджерс 0-3% 12%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Роджерс 12%+
1%
Роджерс 9-12%
4%
Роджерс 6-9%
7%
Роджерс 3-6%
7%
Роджерс 0-3%
12%
Эль-Сайед 0-3%
16%
Эль-Саид 3-6%
22%
Эль-Саид 6-9%
16%
Эль-Сайед 9-12%
6%
Эль-Сайед 12%+
10%
Эль-Саид 3-6% 22%
Эль-Саид 6-9% 16%
Эль-Сайед 0-3% 16%
Роджерс 0-3% 12%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Роджерс 12%+
$110 Объем
1%
Роджерс 9-12%
$91 Объем
4%
Роджерс 6-9%
$151 Объем
7%
Роджерс 3-6%
$190 Объем
7%
Роджерс 0-3%
$103 Объем
12%
Эль-Сайед 0-3%
$240 Объем
16%
Эль-Саид 3-6%
$348 Объем
22%
Эль-Саид 6-9%
$332 Объем
16%
Эль-Сайед 9-12%
$145 Объем
6%
Эль-Сайед 12%+
$190 Объем
10%
The 2026 Michigan Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Michigan Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling averages place Democrat Abdul El-Sayed narrowly ahead of Republican Mike Rogers by roughly 2 points among likely voters, with most surveys falling inside the margin of error and producing consistent single-digit spreads. The open-seat contest in a state carried by President Trump in 2024 has kept the race competitive, as El-Sayed’s narrow primary victory over Haley Stevens and Rogers’ prior near-miss have limited either candidate’s ability to build a durable lead. Early voting begins in roughly a month, while voter concerns over the economy, healthcare, and candidate favorability ratings—both net negative—continue to suppress separation. These factors align with trader pricing that assigns roughly even probability to narrow wins for either side and clusters the highest probabilities on 0–9 point margins.
The 2026 Michigan Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Michigan Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Michigan Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Aug 4, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Объем
$1,900Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 4, 2026, 2:23 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Michigan Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Michigan Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling averages place Democrat Abdul El-Sayed narrowly ahead of Republican Mike Rogers by roughly 2 points among likely voters, with most surveys falling inside the margin of error and producing consistent single-digit spreads. The open-seat contest in a state carried by President Trump in 2024 has kept the race competitive, as El-Sayed’s narrow primary victory over Haley Stevens and Rogers’ prior near-miss have limited either candidate’s ability to build a durable lead. Early voting begins in roughly a month, while voter concerns over the economy, healthcare, and candidate favorability ratings—both net negative—continue to suppress separation. These factors align with trader pricing that assigns roughly even probability to narrow wins for either side and clusters the highest probabilities on 0–9 point margins.
The 2026 Michigan Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Michigan Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Michigan Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$1,900Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 4, 2026, 2:23 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages place Democrat Abdul El-Sayed narrowly ahead of Republican Mike Rogers by roughly 2 points among likely voters, with most surveys falling inside the margin of error and producing consistent single-digit spreads. The open-seat contest in a state carried by President Trump in 2024 has kept the race competitive, as El-Sayed’s narrow primary victory over Haley Stevens and Rogers’ prior near-miss have limited either candidate’s ability to build a durable lead. Early voting begins in roughly a month, while voter concerns over the economy, healthcare, and candidate favorability ratings—both net negative—continue to suppress separation. These factors align with trader pricing that assigns roughly even probability to narrow wins for either side and clusters the highest probabilities on 0–9 point margins.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Победит ли кандидат от Демократической партии на выборах губернатора Мичигана в 2026 году с перевесом 9%-12%?
23%
Да
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MI-06 House election by 30%-35%?
30%
Победит ли кандидат от Демократической партии на выборах в Палату представителей по округу MI-07 в 2026 году с разницей в 0-3%?
24%
Да
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы