Recent polling averages place Democratic nominee James Talarico narrowly ahead of Republican nominee Ken Paxton by 1–3 points in the Texas U.S. Senate race, with several July and early August surveys showing Talarico at 47–51% and Paxton at 45–48%. Paxton’s primary victory over incumbent John Cornyn, aided by a late endorsement from President Trump, and Talarico’s win over Representative Jasmine Crockett have framed the contest as unusually competitive in a state that has favored Republicans in recent Senate contests. The tight spread across small-margin buckets for both parties reflects trader assessment of ongoing economic concerns, turnout patterns among suburban and rural voters, and limited separation in head-to-head matchups. Scheduled developments through November 3, including additional polling releases and campaign spending, could shift probabilities if one candidate consolidates support or if national political conditions change.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПредел победы на выборах в Сенат Техаса
Предел победы на выборах в Сенат Техаса
Демократ 9-12% 28%
Демократ 12%+ 27%
Республиканец 0-3% 26%
Демократ 0-3% 26%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканец 12%+
8%
Республиканец 9-12%
13%
Республиканец 6-9%
19%
Республиканец 3-6%
25%
Республиканец 0-3%
26%
Демократ 0-3%
26%
Демократ 3–6%
23%
Демократ 6-9%
26%
Демократ 9-12%
28%
Демократ 12%+
27%
Демократ 9-12% 28%
Демократ 12%+ 27%
Республиканец 0-3% 26%
Демократ 0-3% 26%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканец 12%+
$0 Объем
8%
Республиканец 9-12%
$0 Объем
13%
Республиканец 6-9%
$0 Объем
19%
Республиканец 3-6%
$0 Объем
25%
Республиканец 0-3%
$0 Объем
26%
Демократ 0-3%
$0 Объем
26%
Демократ 3–6%
$0 Объем
23%
Демократ 6-9%
$0 Объем
26%
Демократ 9-12%
$0 Объем
28%
Демократ 12%+
$0 Объем
27%
The 2026 Texas Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Texas Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling averages place Democratic nominee James Talarico narrowly ahead of Republican nominee Ken Paxton by 1–3 points in the Texas U.S. Senate race, with several July and early August surveys showing Talarico at 47–51% and Paxton at 45–48%. Paxton’s primary victory over incumbent John Cornyn, aided by a late endorsement from President Trump, and Talarico’s win over Representative Jasmine Crockett have framed the contest as unusually competitive in a state that has favored Republicans in recent Senate contests. The tight spread across small-margin buckets for both parties reflects trader assessment of ongoing economic concerns, turnout patterns among suburban and rural voters, and limited separation in head-to-head matchups. Scheduled developments through November 3, including additional polling releases and campaign spending, could shift probabilities if one candidate consolidates support or if national political conditions change.
The 2026 Texas Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Texas Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Texas Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Aug 4, 2026, 2:39 PM ET
Объем
$0Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 4, 2026, 2:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Texas Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Texas Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling averages place Democratic nominee James Talarico narrowly ahead of Republican nominee Ken Paxton by 1–3 points in the Texas U.S. Senate race, with several July and early August surveys showing Talarico at 47–51% and Paxton at 45–48%. Paxton’s primary victory over incumbent John Cornyn, aided by a late endorsement from President Trump, and Talarico’s win over Representative Jasmine Crockett have framed the contest as unusually competitive in a state that has favored Republicans in recent Senate contests. The tight spread across small-margin buckets for both parties reflects trader assessment of ongoing economic concerns, turnout patterns among suburban and rural voters, and limited separation in head-to-head matchups. Scheduled developments through November 3, including additional polling releases and campaign spending, could shift probabilities if one candidate consolidates support or if national political conditions change.
The 2026 Texas Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Texas Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Texas Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$0Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 4, 2026, 2:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages place Democratic nominee James Talarico narrowly ahead of Republican nominee Ken Paxton by 1–3 points in the Texas U.S. Senate race, with several July and early August surveys showing Talarico at 47–51% and Paxton at 45–48%. Paxton’s primary victory over incumbent John Cornyn, aided by a late endorsement from President Trump, and Talarico’s win over Representative Jasmine Crockett have framed the contest as unusually competitive in a state that has favored Republicans in recent Senate contests. The tight spread across small-margin buckets for both parties reflects trader assessment of ongoing economic concerns, turnout patterns among suburban and rural voters, and limited separation in head-to-head matchups. Scheduled developments through November 3, including additional polling releases and campaign spending, could shift probabilities if one candidate consolidates support or if national political conditions change.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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