Recent polls ahead of Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election show Die Linke and the CDU locked in a statistical tie near 20-23 percent, with the AfD and Greens clustered just behind and the SPD further back. This tight four-way contest at the top, combined with standard polling margins of error, keeps implied probabilities concentrated on Linke or CDU victory margins of 0-5 percent. Coalition arithmetic remains fluid because no two-party pairing appears sufficient, while smaller parties hover near or below the five-percent threshold. The final days of campaigning and any late shifts in turnout among urban or younger voters could still determine which party finishes first and by how narrow a margin.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоЛевые 0-2% 32%
Левые 2-5% 31%
ХДС 2-5% 26%
СДП 0-2% 18%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
20 сент. 2026 г.
Левые 0-2%
32%
Левые 2-5%
31%
Левые 5-10%
13%
Левые 10%+
4%
СДП 0-2%
18%
ХДС 2-5%
26%
ХДС 5-10%
7%
ХДС 10%+
2%
АдГ 0-2%
2%
АдГ 2-5%
2%
АдГ 5%+
2%
Побеждает другая партия
2%
Левые 0-2% 32%
Левые 2-5% 31%
ХДС 2-5% 26%
СДП 0-2% 18%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
20 сент. 2026 г.
Левые 0-2%
$20 Объем
32%
Левые 2-5%
$259 Объем
31%
Левые 5-10%
$23 Объем
13%
Левые 10%+
$95 Объем
4%
СДП 0-2%
$0 Объем
18%
ХДС 2-5%
$0 Объем
26%
ХДС 5-10%
$0 Объем
7%
ХДС 10%+
$45 Объем
2%
АдГ 0-2%
$0 Объем
2%
АдГ 2-5%
$0 Объем
2%
АдГ 5%+
$0 Объем
2%
Побеждает другая партия
$65 Объем
2%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls ahead of Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election show Die Linke and the CDU locked in a statistical tie near 20-23 percent, with the AfD and Greens clustered just behind and the SPD further back. This tight four-way contest at the top, combined with standard polling margins of error, keeps implied probabilities concentrated on Linke or CDU victory margins of 0-5 percent. Coalition arithmetic remains fluid because no two-party pairing appears sufficient, while smaller parties hover near or below the five-percent threshold. The final days of campaigning and any late shifts in turnout among urban or younger voters could still determine which party finishes first and by how narrow a margin.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Открытие рынка: Sep 15, 2026, 10:21 PM ET
Объем
$507Дата окончания
20 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 15, 2026, 10:21 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls ahead of Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election show Die Linke and the CDU locked in a statistical tie near 20-23 percent, with the AfD and Greens clustered just behind and the SPD further back. This tight four-way contest at the top, combined with standard polling margins of error, keeps implied probabilities concentrated on Linke or CDU victory margins of 0-5 percent. Coalition arithmetic remains fluid because no two-party pairing appears sufficient, while smaller parties hover near or below the five-percent threshold. The final days of campaigning and any late shifts in turnout among urban or younger voters could still determine which party finishes first and by how narrow a margin.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Объем
$507Дата окончания
20 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 15, 2026, 10:21 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls ahead of Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election show Die Linke and the CDU locked in a statistical tie near 20-23 percent, with the AfD and Greens clustered just behind and the SPD further back. This tight four-way contest at the top, combined with standard polling margins of error, keeps implied probabilities concentrated on Linke or CDU victory margins of 0-5 percent. Coalition arithmetic remains fluid because no two-party pairing appears sufficient, while smaller parties hover near or below the five-percent threshold. The final days of campaigning and any late shifts in turnout among urban or younger voters could still determine which party finishes first and by how narrow a margin.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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