Recent opinion polls ahead of Sweden’s September 13 parliamentary election show Sverigedemokraterna (SD) consistently ahead of Moderaterna (M), with SD at approximately 20% and M at 16–17% in surveys from Demoskop, Novus, and others conducted through early August 2026. This gap has held steady in the final stretch, reflecting SD’s established position as the second-largest party and its stronger support within the right-leaning Tidö bloc despite the bloc overall trailing the red-green opposition. No major polling shifts or late-breaking events have narrowed the margin between the two parties. Traders therefore assign SD an 82.5% implied probability of finishing ahead of M on election night, consistent with the persistent survey lead and the limited time remaining for momentum to reverse.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПарламентские выборы в Швеции: больше голосов СД или М?
Парламентские выборы в Швеции: больше голосов СД или М?
SD
83% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
13 сент. 2026 г.
SD
83% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
13 сент. 2026 г.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “SD” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins more valid votes than Moderate Party (M) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “M” if Moderate Party (M) wins more valid votes than Sweden Democrats (SD) in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Sweden Democrats (SD) and Moderate Party (M) receive exactly the same number of valid votes in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid votes won by each specified party.
Valid votes will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Recent opinion polls ahead of Sweden’s September 13 parliamentary election show Sverigedemokraterna (SD) consistently ahead of Moderaterna (M), with SD at approximately 20% and M at 16–17% in surveys from Demoskop, Novus, and others conducted through early August 2026. This gap has held steady in the final stretch, reflecting SD’s established position as the second-largest party and its stronger support within the right-leaning Tidö bloc despite the bloc overall trailing the red-green opposition. No major polling shifts or late-breaking events have narrowed the margin between the two parties. Traders therefore assign SD an 82.5% implied probability of finishing ahead of M on election night, consistent with the persistent survey lead and the limited time remaining for momentum to reverse.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “SD” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins more valid votes than Moderate Party (M) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “M” if Moderate Party (M) wins more valid votes than Sweden Democrats (SD) in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Sweden Democrats (SD) and Moderate Party (M) receive exactly the same number of valid votes in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid votes won by each specified party.
Valid votes will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “SD” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins more valid votes than Moderate Party (M) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “M” if Moderate Party (M) wins more valid votes than Sweden Democrats (SD) in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Sweden Democrats (SD) and Moderate Party (M) receive exactly the same number of valid votes in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid votes won by each specified party.
Valid votes will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Открытие рынка: Aug 13, 2026, 5:22 AM ET
Объем
$2,061Дата окончания
13 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 13, 2026, 5:22 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “SD” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins more valid votes than Moderate Party (M) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “M” if Moderate Party (M) wins more valid votes than Sweden Democrats (SD) in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Sweden Democrats (SD) and Moderate Party (M) receive exactly the same number of valid votes in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid votes won by each specified party.
Valid votes will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Recent opinion polls ahead of Sweden’s September 13 parliamentary election show Sverigedemokraterna (SD) consistently ahead of Moderaterna (M), with SD at approximately 20% and M at 16–17% in surveys from Demoskop, Novus, and others conducted through early August 2026. This gap has held steady in the final stretch, reflecting SD’s established position as the second-largest party and its stronger support within the right-leaning Tidö bloc despite the bloc overall trailing the red-green opposition. No major polling shifts or late-breaking events have narrowed the margin between the two parties. Traders therefore assign SD an 82.5% implied probability of finishing ahead of M on election night, consistent with the persistent survey lead and the limited time remaining for momentum to reverse.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “SD” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins more valid votes than Moderate Party (M) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “M” if Moderate Party (M) wins more valid votes than Sweden Democrats (SD) in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Sweden Democrats (SD) and Moderate Party (M) receive exactly the same number of valid votes in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid votes won by each specified party.
Valid votes will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “SD” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins more valid votes than Moderate Party (M) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “M” if Moderate Party (M) wins more valid votes than Sweden Democrats (SD) in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Sweden Democrats (SD) and Moderate Party (M) receive exactly the same number of valid votes in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid votes won by each specified party.
Valid votes will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Объем
$2,061Дата окончания
13 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 13, 2026, 5:22 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent opinion polls ahead of Sweden’s September 13 parliamentary election show Sverigedemokraterna (SD) consistently ahead of Moderaterna (M), with SD at approximately 20% and M at 16–17% in surveys from Demoskop, Novus, and others conducted through early August 2026. This gap has held steady in the final stretch, reflecting SD’s established position as the second-largest party and its stronger support within the right-leaning Tidö bloc despite the bloc overall trailing the red-green opposition. No major polling shifts or late-breaking events have narrowed the margin between the two parties. Traders therefore assign SD an 82.5% implied probability of finishing ahead of M on election night, consistent with the persistent survey lead and the limited time remaining for momentum to reverse.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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