Recent polling from state agencies like VTsIOM and FOM places A Just Russia near the 5% proportional representation threshold for the September 18-20 Duma vote, with estimates ranging from 4-7% amid competition from New People and LDPR for secondary support. The party's shift to an explicitly pro-war stance, emphasizing veteran aid under slogans like “Protect the Protectors,” and its status as a Kremlin-aligned system party create uncertainty over whether administrative measures will ensure clearance, as occurred in prior cycles. Analysts note organizational weakening and dependence on regime preferences for maintaining a five-party Duma, while independent surveys often show lower figures. These factors sustain the closely balanced trader assessment, with outcomes hinging on final turnout, single-member results, and any last-minute adjustments to vote distribution.