US labs continue to lead frontier large language model development, with OpenAI’s GPT-5 series, Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7, and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro holding top spots on major benchmarks as of May 2026. Chinese efforts such as DeepSeek-V4, Alibaba’s Qwen3.5, and Zhipu’s GLM-5 have narrowed the gap to roughly 3–6 months or 2–3 percent in Elo ratings, yet none currently surpass the leading proprietary systems. Trader consensus at 92 percent for “No” reflects sustained U.S. advantages in compute access, training scale, and iterative releases, while Chinese models remain strongest in cost-efficient open-weight deployments. A surprise breakthrough in domestic hardware scaling or an unexpected delay in Western timelines could still shift the outcome before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБудет ли у китайской компании лучшая модель ИИ к 31 декабря?
Будет ли у китайской компании лучшая модель ИИ к 31 декабря?
Да
$10,577 Объем
$10,577 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$10,577 Объем
$10,577 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Chinese company owns the model that has the highest arena score, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Models will be ranked by their arena score at the market’s check time. This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model holds a strictly higher score than all others; ties will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.US labs continue to lead frontier large language model development, with OpenAI’s GPT-5 series, Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7, and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro holding top spots on major benchmarks as of May 2026. Chinese efforts such as DeepSeek-V4, Alibaba’s Qwen3.5, and Zhipu’s GLM-5 have narrowed the gap to roughly 3–6 months or 2–3 percent in Elo ratings, yet none currently surpass the leading proprietary systems. Trader consensus at 92 percent for “No” reflects sustained U.S. advantages in compute access, training scale, and iterative releases, while Chinese models remain strongest in cost-efficient open-weight deployments. A surprise breakthrough in domestic hardware scaling or an unexpected delay in Western timelines could still shift the outcome before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Chinese company owns the model that has the highest arena score, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Models will be ranked by their arena score at the market’s check time. This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model holds a strictly higher score than all others; ties will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Models will be ranked by their arena score at the market’s check time. This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model holds a strictly higher score than all others; ties will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Открытие рынка: Apr 2, 2026, 5:52 PM ET
Объем
$10,577Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 2, 2026, 5:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Chinese company owns the model that has the highest arena score, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Models will be ranked by their arena score at the market’s check time. This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model holds a strictly higher score than all others; ties will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.US labs continue to lead frontier large language model development, with OpenAI’s GPT-5 series, Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7, and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro holding top spots on major benchmarks as of May 2026. Chinese efforts such as DeepSeek-V4, Alibaba’s Qwen3.5, and Zhipu’s GLM-5 have narrowed the gap to roughly 3–6 months or 2–3 percent in Elo ratings, yet none currently surpass the leading proprietary systems. Trader consensus at 92 percent for “No” reflects sustained U.S. advantages in compute access, training scale, and iterative releases, while Chinese models remain strongest in cost-efficient open-weight deployments. A surprise breakthrough in domestic hardware scaling or an unexpected delay in Western timelines could still shift the outcome before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Chinese company owns the model that has the highest arena score, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Models will be ranked by their arena score at the market’s check time. This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model holds a strictly higher score than all others; ties will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Models will be ranked by their arena score at the market’s check time. This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model holds a strictly higher score than all others; ties will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Объем
$10,577Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 2, 2026, 5:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US labs continue to lead frontier large language model development, with OpenAI’s GPT-5 series, Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7, and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro holding top spots on major benchmarks as of May 2026. Chinese efforts such as DeepSeek-V4, Alibaba’s Qwen3.5, and Zhipu’s GLM-5 have narrowed the gap to roughly 3–6 months or 2–3 percent in Elo ratings, yet none currently surpass the leading proprietary systems. Trader consensus at 92 percent for “No” reflects sustained U.S. advantages in compute access, training scale, and iterative releases, while Chinese models remain strongest in cost-efficient open-weight deployments. A surprise breakthrough in domestic hardware scaling or an unexpected delay in Western timelines could still shift the outcome before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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