Apple's established pattern of annual flagship smartphone launches, with iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models confirmed by suppliers and analysts for a September 2026 keynote and retail rollout alongside the first foldable iPhone, drives the 98.2% implied probability for a 2026 release. Recent supply-chain reports and earnings commentary from partners like Pegatron reinforce that premium variants will follow the traditional fall cadence, even as the base iPhone 18 shifts to early 2027 to accommodate the new split strategy. Traders view this as near-certain given Apple's 15-plus-year history of September events, strong fourth-quarter revenue alignment, and ongoing component production. While a major disruption such as severe manufacturing delays, regulatory hurdles, or an unforeseen leadership transition could theoretically push everything back, the risk appears minimal at this stage with pre-launch timelines already advanced.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБудет ли Apple выпускать iPhone 18 в 2026 году?
Будет ли Apple выпускать iPhone 18 в 2026 году?
Да
98% вероятность
$172,877 Объем
$172,877 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
98% вероятность
$172,877 Объем
$172,877 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established pattern of annual flagship smartphone launches, with iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models confirmed by suppliers and analysts for a September 2026 keynote and retail rollout alongside the first foldable iPhone, drives the 98.2% implied probability for a 2026 release. Recent supply-chain reports and earnings commentary from partners like Pegatron reinforce that premium variants will follow the traditional fall cadence, even as the base iPhone 18 shifts to early 2027 to accommodate the new split strategy. Traders view this as near-certain given Apple's 15-plus-year history of September events, strong fourth-quarter revenue alignment, and ongoing component production. While a major disruption such as severe manufacturing delays, regulatory hurdles, or an unforeseen leadership transition could theoretically push everything back, the risk appears minimal at this stage with pre-launch timelines already advanced.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Объем
$172,877Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established pattern of annual flagship smartphone launches, with iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models confirmed by suppliers and analysts for a September 2026 keynote and retail rollout alongside the first foldable iPhone, drives the 98.2% implied probability for a 2026 release. Recent supply-chain reports and earnings commentary from partners like Pegatron reinforce that premium variants will follow the traditional fall cadence, even as the base iPhone 18 shifts to early 2027 to accommodate the new split strategy. Traders view this as near-certain given Apple's 15-plus-year history of September events, strong fourth-quarter revenue alignment, and ongoing component production. While a major disruption such as severe manufacturing delays, regulatory hurdles, or an unforeseen leadership transition could theoretically push everything back, the risk appears minimal at this stage with pre-launch timelines already advanced.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$172,877Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's established pattern of annual flagship smartphone launches, with iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models confirmed by suppliers and analysts for a September 2026 keynote and retail rollout alongside the first foldable iPhone, drives the 98.2% implied probability for a 2026 release. Recent supply-chain reports and earnings commentary from partners like Pegatron reinforce that premium variants will follow the traditional fall cadence, even as the base iPhone 18 shifts to early 2027 to accommodate the new split strategy. Traders view this as near-certain given Apple's 15-plus-year history of September events, strong fourth-quarter revenue alignment, and ongoing component production. While a major disruption such as severe manufacturing delays, regulatory hurdles, or an unforeseen leadership transition could theoretically push everything back, the risk appears minimal at this stage with pre-launch timelines already advanced.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы