Apple's longstanding pattern of annual flagship smartphone launches underpins the 94% market-implied probability that an iPhone 18 series reaches the market in 2026. Recent supply-chain reports and credible leaks confirm the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and foldable model are on track for a September event, aligning with the company's typical fall cadence and ongoing component procurement cycles. While some base models could shift to early 2027 amid a planned lineup split, no official delays or cancellations have surfaced that would derail the overall release window. Traders weigh these factors against historical precedent, recognizing that unforeseen production hurdles or strategic adjustments remain low-probability risks given Apple's established manufacturing partnerships.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБудет ли Apple выпускать iPhone 18 в 2026 году?
Будет ли Apple выпускать iPhone 18 в 2026 году?
Да
$104,277 Объем
$104,277 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$104,277 Объем
$104,277 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's longstanding pattern of annual flagship smartphone launches underpins the 94% market-implied probability that an iPhone 18 series reaches the market in 2026. Recent supply-chain reports and credible leaks confirm the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and foldable model are on track for a September event, aligning with the company's typical fall cadence and ongoing component procurement cycles. While some base models could shift to early 2027 amid a planned lineup split, no official delays or cancellations have surfaced that would derail the overall release window. Traders weigh these factors against historical precedent, recognizing that unforeseen production hurdles or strategic adjustments remain low-probability risks given Apple's established manufacturing partnerships.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Объем
$104,277Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's longstanding pattern of annual flagship smartphone launches underpins the 94% market-implied probability that an iPhone 18 series reaches the market in 2026. Recent supply-chain reports and credible leaks confirm the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and foldable model are on track for a September event, aligning with the company's typical fall cadence and ongoing component procurement cycles. While some base models could shift to early 2027 amid a planned lineup split, no official delays or cancellations have surfaced that would derail the overall release window. Traders weigh these factors against historical precedent, recognizing that unforeseen production hurdles or strategic adjustments remain low-probability risks given Apple's established manufacturing partnerships.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$104,277Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's longstanding pattern of annual flagship smartphone launches underpins the 94% market-implied probability that an iPhone 18 series reaches the market in 2026. Recent supply-chain reports and credible leaks confirm the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and foldable model are on track for a September event, aligning with the company's typical fall cadence and ongoing component procurement cycles. While some base models could shift to early 2027 amid a planned lineup split, no official delays or cancellations have surfaced that would derail the overall release window. Traders weigh these factors against historical precedent, recognizing that unforeseen production hurdles or strategic adjustments remain low-probability risks given Apple's established manufacturing partnerships.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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