Anthropic’s October 26 S-1 filing and subsequent amendments revealed first-half 2026 revenue of $16.3 billion and Q3 revenue near $17 billion, underscoring rapid scaling that supports current market-implied odds clustering in the $1.25–1.75 trillion range. Expectations have moderated from earlier $1.8–2 trillion targets amid decelerating sequential growth, elevated compute commitments exceeding $895 billion, and a broader AI equity selloff pressuring multiples. The closely contested 31.8% and 29.6% probabilities on the $1.5–1.75 trillion and $1.25–1.5 trillion buckets reflect uncertainty over final pricing as roadshow marketing begins around November 10, with comparable benchmarks like SpaceX’s $1.75 trillion debut and ongoing questions about sustainable margins shaping trader consensus ahead of a potential mid-November listing.