Trader consensus prices an 80.5% chance of no military clash between China and the Philippines before 2027, driven by persistent but contained gray-zone tactics in the South China Sea rather than armed escalation. On May 3, both nations traded accusations over Philippine personnel landings at disputed Sandy Cay and Chinese research vessels near the Spratly Islands, echoing earlier April cyanide-dumping claims and coast guard standoffs at Ayungin Shoal, yet without naval gunfire or blockades. Philippines' role as 2026 ASEAN chair accelerates code of conduct negotiations with China, while US-backed Balikatan drills in April signal alliance deterrence via the mutual defense treaty. These diplomatic and military guardrails, amid economic interdependence, anchor low escalation probabilities despite rhetorical tensions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$355,506 Объем
$355,506 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$355,506 Объем
$355,506 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices an 80.5% chance of no military clash between China and the Philippines before 2027, driven by persistent but contained gray-zone tactics in the South China Sea rather than armed escalation. On May 3, both nations traded accusations over Philippine personnel landings at disputed Sandy Cay and Chinese research vessels near the Spratly Islands, echoing earlier April cyanide-dumping claims and coast guard standoffs at Ayungin Shoal, yet without naval gunfire or blockades. Philippines' role as 2026 ASEAN chair accelerates code of conduct negotiations with China, while US-backed Balikatan drills in April signal alliance deterrence via the mutual defense treaty. These diplomatic and military guardrails, amid economic interdependence, anchor low escalation probabilities despite rhetorical tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ET
Объем
$355,506Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices an 80.5% chance of no military clash between China and the Philippines before 2027, driven by persistent but contained gray-zone tactics in the South China Sea rather than armed escalation. On May 3, both nations traded accusations over Philippine personnel landings at disputed Sandy Cay and Chinese research vessels near the Spratly Islands, echoing earlier April cyanide-dumping claims and coast guard standoffs at Ayungin Shoal, yet without naval gunfire or blockades. Philippines' role as 2026 ASEAN chair accelerates code of conduct negotiations with China, while US-backed Balikatan drills in April signal alliance deterrence via the mutual defense treaty. These diplomatic and military guardrails, amid economic interdependence, anchor low escalation probabilities despite rhetorical tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$355,506Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices an 80.5% chance of no military clash between China and the Philippines before 2027, driven by persistent but contained gray-zone tactics in the South China Sea rather than armed escalation. On May 3, both nations traded accusations over Philippine personnel landings at disputed Sandy Cay and Chinese research vessels near the Spratly Islands, echoing earlier April cyanide-dumping claims and coast guard standoffs at Ayungin Shoal, yet without naval gunfire or blockades. Philippines' role as 2026 ASEAN chair accelerates code of conduct negotiations with China, while US-backed Balikatan drills in April signal alliance deterrence via the mutual defense treaty. These diplomatic and military guardrails, amid economic interdependence, anchor low escalation probabilities despite rhetorical tensions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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