Traders assign a 98.6 percent probability that China will not invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of detectable large-scale amphibious preparations, troop movements, or logistics shifts in the Taiwan Strait over recent months. Ongoing PLA exercises continue to emphasize blockade and air-defense scenarios rather than immediate cross-strait landings, while Beijing’s public statements stress “peaceful reunification” alongside diplomatic outreach to regional partners. Strong U.S. and allied arms commitments, coupled with sustained economic interdependence, further reinforce deterrence in the narrow remaining window. The only plausible shifts within this timeframe would require an abrupt, unforeseen leadership decision or severe miscalculation, both viewed by the market as low-probability events given current intelligence indicators and military timelines.