Persistent territorial disputes, security guarantee demands, and stalled diplomacy continue to block any Ukraine-Russia peace agreement, with Russia conditioning talks on recognition of current battlefield lines and prior frameworks like those from Istanbul. Short-lived ceasefires in spring 2026 failed to produce momentum, and recent U.S.-Ukraine coordination on proposals, including potential air restrictions, has drawn noncommittal responses from Moscow through early August. With only weeks remaining before the August 31 deadline and no scheduled summits or verified concessions on core issues, trader consensus reflects entrenched positions and ongoing hostilities. Late diplomatic breakthroughs or sudden battlefield shifts remain possible but face significant procedural and political barriers.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
2% вероятность
$232,199 Объем
$232,199 Объем
31 авг. 2026 г.
Да
2% вероятность
$232,199 Объем
$232,199 Объем
31 авг. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Persistent territorial disputes, security guarantee demands, and stalled diplomacy continue to block any Ukraine-Russia peace agreement, with Russia conditioning talks on recognition of current battlefield lines and prior frameworks like those from Istanbul. Short-lived ceasefires in spring 2026 failed to produce momentum, and recent U.S.-Ukraine coordination on proposals, including potential air restrictions, has drawn noncommittal responses from Moscow through early August. With only weeks remaining before the August 31 deadline and no scheduled summits or verified concessions on core issues, trader consensus reflects entrenched positions and ongoing hostilities. Late diplomatic breakthroughs or sudden battlefield shifts remain possible but face significant procedural and political barriers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Объем
$232,199Дата окончания
31 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Persistent territorial disputes, security guarantee demands, and stalled diplomacy continue to block any Ukraine-Russia peace agreement, with Russia conditioning talks on recognition of current battlefield lines and prior frameworks like those from Istanbul. Short-lived ceasefires in spring 2026 failed to produce momentum, and recent U.S.-Ukraine coordination on proposals, including potential air restrictions, has drawn noncommittal responses from Moscow through early August. With only weeks remaining before the August 31 deadline and no scheduled summits or verified concessions on core issues, trader consensus reflects entrenched positions and ongoing hostilities. Late diplomatic breakthroughs or sudden battlefield shifts remain possible but face significant procedural and political barriers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$232,199Дата окончания
31 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent territorial disputes, security guarantee demands, and stalled diplomacy continue to block any Ukraine-Russia peace agreement, with Russia conditioning talks on recognition of current battlefield lines and prior frameworks like those from Istanbul. Short-lived ceasefires in spring 2026 failed to produce momentum, and recent U.S.-Ukraine coordination on proposals, including potential air restrictions, has drawn noncommittal responses from Moscow through early August. With only weeks remaining before the August 31 deadline and no scheduled summits or verified concessions on core issues, trader consensus reflects entrenched positions and ongoing hostilities. Late diplomatic breakthroughs or sudden battlefield shifts remain possible but face significant procedural and political barriers.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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