Ongoing US-Iran hostilities and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz since late February 2026 continue to suppress vessel traffic, with daily transits recently averaging just 10 ships versus a pre-crisis norm near 60-125. Renewed attacks, sanctions reimposition, and a US blockade in July drove sharp further declines, pushing weekly totals into the low dozens and elevating tanker insurance costs plus global energy price volatility. The closely matched probabilities around 50-74 and 75-99 ships for the week of August 3 reflect trader uncertainty over any near-term stabilization or modest rebound ahead of potential diplomatic signals, while lower ranges price in persistent restrictions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСколько кораблей пройдет через Ормузский пролив за неделю до 3 августа?
Сколько кораблей пройдет через Ормузский пролив за неделю до 3 августа?
75-99 46%
50-74 45%
25-49 43%
100+ 41%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
9 авг. 2026 г.
<25
22%
25-49
43%
50-74
45%
75-99
46%
100+
41%
75-99 46%
50-74 45%
25-49 43%
100+ 41%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
9 авг. 2026 г.
<25
$0 Объем
22%
25-49
$0 Объем
43%
50-74
$0 Объем
45%
75-99
$0 Объем
46%
100+
$0 Объем
41%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran hostilities and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz since late February 2026 continue to suppress vessel traffic, with daily transits recently averaging just 10 ships versus a pre-crisis norm near 60-125. Renewed attacks, sanctions reimposition, and a US blockade in July drove sharp further declines, pushing weekly totals into the low dozens and elevating tanker insurance costs plus global energy price volatility. The closely matched probabilities around 50-74 and 75-99 ships for the week of August 3 reflect trader uncertainty over any near-term stabilization or modest rebound ahead of potential diplomatic signals, while lower ranges price in persistent restrictions.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Открытие рынка: Jul 31, 2026, 5:57 PM ET
Объем
$0Дата окончания
9 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 31, 2026, 5:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran hostilities and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz since late February 2026 continue to suppress vessel traffic, with daily transits recently averaging just 10 ships versus a pre-crisis norm near 60-125. Renewed attacks, sanctions reimposition, and a US blockade in July drove sharp further declines, pushing weekly totals into the low dozens and elevating tanker insurance costs plus global energy price volatility. The closely matched probabilities around 50-74 and 75-99 ships for the week of August 3 reflect trader uncertainty over any near-term stabilization or modest rebound ahead of potential diplomatic signals, while lower ranges price in persistent restrictions.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Объем
$0Дата окончания
9 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 31, 2026, 5:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing US-Iran hostilities and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz since late February 2026 continue to suppress vessel traffic, with daily transits recently averaging just 10 ships versus a pre-crisis norm near 60-125. Renewed attacks, sanctions reimposition, and a US blockade in July drove sharp further declines, pushing weekly totals into the low dozens and elevating tanker insurance costs plus global energy price volatility. The closely matched probabilities around 50-74 and 75-99 ships for the week of August 3 reflect trader uncertainty over any near-term stabilization or modest rebound ahead of potential diplomatic signals, while lower ranges price in persistent restrictions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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