Iran maintains firm control over Hormuz Island through IRGC naval and coastal forces, positioning it as one of seven strategic islands forming a defensive arc that monitors and influences traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. As of September 2026, Iranian officials continue to assert administrative and military authority over the waterway, including recent announcements of expanded sanctions zones and restricted shipping corridors extending beyond the strait, alongside ongoing strikes on vessels to deter non-compliant routes. These steps follow a period of US-Iran maritime clashes and interim diplomatic efforts, with Tehran prioritizing institutional mechanisms such as the Persian Gulf Strait Authority to formalize its position. No verified foreign military operations have altered Iranian sovereignty on the island, though broader regional tensions involving US naval presence and alternative transit proposals remain active variables.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоОстров Ормуз больше не находится под контролем Ирана...?
Остров Ормуз больше не находится под контролем Ирана...?
$71,135 Объем
30 сент. 2026 г.
30 сентября
3%
$71,135 Объем
30 сентября
$858 Объем
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains firm control over Hormuz Island through IRGC naval and coastal forces, positioning it as one of seven strategic islands forming a defensive arc that monitors and influences traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. As of September 2026, Iranian officials continue to assert administrative and military authority over the waterway, including recent announcements of expanded sanctions zones and restricted shipping corridors extending beyond the strait, alongside ongoing strikes on vessels to deter non-compliant routes. These steps follow a period of US-Iran maritime clashes and interim diplomatic efforts, with Tehran prioritizing institutional mechanisms such as the Persian Gulf Strait Authority to formalize its position. No verified foreign military operations have altered Iranian sovereignty on the island, though broader regional tensions involving US naval presence and alternative transit proposals remain active variables.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Aug 26, 2026, 11:06 AM ET
Объем
$71,135Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 26, 2026, 11:06 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains firm control over Hormuz Island through IRGC naval and coastal forces, positioning it as one of seven strategic islands forming a defensive arc that monitors and influences traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. As of September 2026, Iranian officials continue to assert administrative and military authority over the waterway, including recent announcements of expanded sanctions zones and restricted shipping corridors extending beyond the strait, alongside ongoing strikes on vessels to deter non-compliant routes. These steps follow a period of US-Iran maritime clashes and interim diplomatic efforts, with Tehran prioritizing institutional mechanisms such as the Persian Gulf Strait Authority to formalize its position. No verified foreign military operations have altered Iranian sovereignty on the island, though broader regional tensions involving US naval presence and alternative transit proposals remain active variables.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$71,135Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 26, 2026, 11:06 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Iran maintains firm control over Hormuz Island through IRGC naval and coastal forces, positioning it as one of seven strategic islands forming a defensive arc that monitors and influences traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. As of September 2026, Iranian officials continue to assert administrative and military authority over the waterway, including recent announcements of expanded sanctions zones and restricted shipping corridors extending beyond the strait, alongside ongoing strikes on vessels to deter non-compliant routes. These steps follow a period of US-Iran maritime clashes and interim diplomatic efforts, with Tehran prioritizing institutional mechanisms such as the Persian Gulf Strait Authority to formalize its position. No verified foreign military operations have altered Iranian sovereignty on the island, though broader regional tensions involving US naval presence and alternative transit proposals remain active variables.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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