Traders assign an 83.5% probability to no peace deal before 2027, reflecting stalled U.S.-mediated trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva earlier in 2026 and the absence of subsequent rounds. Russia has rejected Ukrainian and European calls for an unconditional ceasefire, insisting on territorial concessions and limits on Ukrainian security arrangements, while Ukraine has maintained that sovereignty and EU integration remain non-negotiable. Kremlin statements in July 2026 explicitly noted no immediate prospects for resuming negotiations. Ongoing Russian advances in Donetsk, Ukrainian long-range strikes, and unresolved disputes over security guarantees and monitoring mechanisms have kept diplomatic momentum low, consistent with the current market pricing.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
17% вероятность
$2,557,120 Объем
$2,557,120 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
17% вероятность
$2,557,120 Объем
$2,557,120 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Traders assign an 83.5% probability to no peace deal before 2027, reflecting stalled U.S.-mediated trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva earlier in 2026 and the absence of subsequent rounds. Russia has rejected Ukrainian and European calls for an unconditional ceasefire, insisting on territorial concessions and limits on Ukrainian security arrangements, while Ukraine has maintained that sovereignty and EU integration remain non-negotiable. Kremlin statements in July 2026 explicitly noted no immediate prospects for resuming negotiations. Ongoing Russian advances in Donetsk, Ukrainian long-range strikes, and unresolved disputes over security guarantees and monitoring mechanisms have kept diplomatic momentum low, consistent with the current market pricing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
Объем
$2,557,120Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Traders assign an 83.5% probability to no peace deal before 2027, reflecting stalled U.S.-mediated trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva earlier in 2026 and the absence of subsequent rounds. Russia has rejected Ukrainian and European calls for an unconditional ceasefire, insisting on territorial concessions and limits on Ukrainian security arrangements, while Ukraine has maintained that sovereignty and EU integration remain non-negotiable. Kremlin statements in July 2026 explicitly noted no immediate prospects for resuming negotiations. Ongoing Russian advances in Donetsk, Ukrainian long-range strikes, and unresolved disputes over security guarantees and monitoring mechanisms have kept diplomatic momentum low, consistent with the current market pricing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$2,557,120Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign an 83.5% probability to no peace deal before 2027, reflecting stalled U.S.-mediated trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva earlier in 2026 and the absence of subsequent rounds. Russia has rejected Ukrainian and European calls for an unconditional ceasefire, insisting on territorial concessions and limits on Ukrainian security arrangements, while Ukraine has maintained that sovereignty and EU integration remain non-negotiable. Kremlin statements in July 2026 explicitly noted no immediate prospects for resuming negotiations. Ongoing Russian advances in Donetsk, Ukrainian long-range strikes, and unresolved disputes over security guarantees and monitoring mechanisms have kept diplomatic momentum low, consistent with the current market pricing.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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