Ongoing diplomatic efforts, including U.S.-mediated trilateral meetings in Geneva and Abu Dhabi earlier this year, have produced no breakthrough on core disputes over territorial control in Donbas and Crimea or long-term security guarantees. The most recent development, a short-lived three-day ceasefire expiring amid mutual violation claims in mid-May 2026, prompted Kremlin statements that any settlement remains a very long way off due to complex unresolved issues, with negotiations effectively paused. Russian officials have signaled no urgency to resume talks, while Ukraine continues to insist on robust protections exceeding 20 years. These entrenched positions, absent fresh concessions or scheduled high-level summits before year-end, sustain trader consensus that a signed agreement by December 31, 2026, faces significant structural barriers.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$575,489 Объем
$575,489 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$575,489 Объем
$575,489 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ongoing diplomatic efforts, including U.S.-mediated trilateral meetings in Geneva and Abu Dhabi earlier this year, have produced no breakthrough on core disputes over territorial control in Donbas and Crimea or long-term security guarantees. The most recent development, a short-lived three-day ceasefire expiring amid mutual violation claims in mid-May 2026, prompted Kremlin statements that any settlement remains a very long way off due to complex unresolved issues, with negotiations effectively paused. Russian officials have signaled no urgency to resume talks, while Ukraine continues to insist on robust protections exceeding 20 years. These entrenched positions, absent fresh concessions or scheduled high-level summits before year-end, sustain trader consensus that a signed agreement by December 31, 2026, faces significant structural barriers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
Объем
$575,489Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ongoing diplomatic efforts, including U.S.-mediated trilateral meetings in Geneva and Abu Dhabi earlier this year, have produced no breakthrough on core disputes over territorial control in Donbas and Crimea or long-term security guarantees. The most recent development, a short-lived three-day ceasefire expiring amid mutual violation claims in mid-May 2026, prompted Kremlin statements that any settlement remains a very long way off due to complex unresolved issues, with negotiations effectively paused. Russian officials have signaled no urgency to resume talks, while Ukraine continues to insist on robust protections exceeding 20 years. These entrenched positions, absent fresh concessions or scheduled high-level summits before year-end, sustain trader consensus that a signed agreement by December 31, 2026, faces significant structural barriers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$575,489Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing diplomatic efforts, including U.S.-mediated trilateral meetings in Geneva and Abu Dhabi earlier this year, have produced no breakthrough on core disputes over territorial control in Donbas and Crimea or long-term security guarantees. The most recent development, a short-lived three-day ceasefire expiring amid mutual violation claims in mid-May 2026, prompted Kremlin statements that any settlement remains a very long way off due to complex unresolved issues, with negotiations effectively paused. Russian officials have signaled no urgency to resume talks, while Ukraine continues to insist on robust protections exceeding 20 years. These entrenched positions, absent fresh concessions or scheduled high-level summits before year-end, sustain trader consensus that a signed agreement by December 31, 2026, faces significant structural barriers.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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