Christine Lagarde’s ECB presidency runs until October 2027 under the standard non-renewable eight-year mandate set by the European Council. Recent statements have anchored trader expectations that she will remain through 2026. In July 2026 she pledged to stay at least until year-end, explicitly rejecting near-term departure amid ongoing rate decisions and euro-area economic pressures, while leaving open only a later exit tied to the 2027 French presidential contest. EU governments have begun informal successor discussions involving candidates such as Pablo Hernández de Cos and Klaas Knot, yet no formal process or confirmed resignation has emerged. These factors, combined with the structural timeline and Lagarde’s emphasis on continuity during monetary-policy turbulence, support the market’s 73.5% probability on “No” for an exit this calendar year.