Finland's "Liekinheitin" by Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen commands a 67.5% implied probability to win Eurovision 2026's First Semi-Final, reflecting trader consensus on its dominant jury and televote appeal following the May 12 Vienna live show. Pre-event frontrunner status from UMK national final victory and betting markets carried into rehearsals, where the cinematic fusion track wowed with high-energy staging, securing qualification alongside challengers Israel ("Michelle" by Noam Bettan at 13.5%), Greece (Akylas' upbeat "Ferto" at 11.5%), and Croatia (LELEK's "Andromeda" at 5.9%). Standout performances elevated Moldova's festive "Viva, Moldova!" (2.3%), while dark horses like Sweden and Poland scraped through. Detailed points remain under wraps until post-Grand Final on May 16, leaving room for televote surprises but affirming Finland's cross-voter momentum.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоEurovision 2026: First Semi-Final Winner
Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final Winner
Finland 68%
Israel 14%
Greece 12%
Croatia 5.8%
$214,677 Объем
$214,677 Объем
12 мая 2026 г.
Finland
68%
Israel
14%
Greece
12%
Croatia
6%
Moldova
2%
Poland
<1%
Sweden
<1%
Serbia
<1%
Lithuania
<1%
Belgium
<1%
Finland 68%
Israel 14%
Greece 12%
Croatia 5.8%
$214,677 Объем
$214,677 Объем
12 мая 2026 г.
Finland
$27,106 Объем
68%
Israel
$13,598 Объем
14%
Greece
$22,573 Объем
12%
Croatia
$23,003 Объем
6%
Moldova
$26,653 Объем
2%
Poland
$15,373 Объем
<1%
Sweden
$14,183 Объем
<1%
Serbia
$10,985 Объем
<1%
Lithuania
$13,757 Объем
<1%
Belgium
$7,799 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.Finland's "Liekinheitin" by Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen commands a 67.5% implied probability to win Eurovision 2026's First Semi-Final, reflecting trader consensus on its dominant jury and televote appeal following the May 12 Vienna live show. Pre-event frontrunner status from UMK national final victory and betting markets carried into rehearsals, where the cinematic fusion track wowed with high-energy staging, securing qualification alongside challengers Israel ("Michelle" by Noam Bettan at 13.5%), Greece (Akylas' upbeat "Ferto" at 11.5%), and Croatia (LELEK's "Andromeda" at 5.9%). Standout performances elevated Moldova's festive "Viva, Moldova!" (2.3%), while dark horses like Sweden and Poland scraped through. Detailed points remain under wraps until post-Grand Final on May 16, leaving room for televote surprises but affirming Finland's cross-voter momentum.
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Открытие рынка: May 7, 2026, 11:45 AM ET
Объем
$214,677Дата окончания
12 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 7, 2026, 11:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.Finland's "Liekinheitin" by Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen commands a 67.5% implied probability to win Eurovision 2026's First Semi-Final, reflecting trader consensus on its dominant jury and televote appeal following the May 12 Vienna live show. Pre-event frontrunner status from UMK national final victory and betting markets carried into rehearsals, where the cinematic fusion track wowed with high-energy staging, securing qualification alongside challengers Israel ("Michelle" by Noam Bettan at 13.5%), Greece (Akylas' upbeat "Ferto" at 11.5%), and Croatia (LELEK's "Andromeda" at 5.9%). Standout performances elevated Moldova's festive "Viva, Moldova!" (2.3%), while dark horses like Sweden and Poland scraped through. Detailed points remain under wraps until post-Grand Final on May 16, leaving room for televote surprises but affirming Finland's cross-voter momentum.
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Объем
$214,677Дата окончания
12 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 7, 2026, 11:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Finland's "Liekinheitin" by Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen commands a 67.5% implied probability to win Eurovision 2026's First Semi-Final, reflecting trader consensus on its dominant jury and televote appeal following the May 12 Vienna live show. Pre-event frontrunner status from UMK national final victory and betting markets carried into rehearsals, where the cinematic fusion track wowed with high-energy staging, securing qualification alongside challengers Israel ("Michelle" by Noam Bettan at 13.5%), Greece (Akylas' upbeat "Ferto" at 11.5%), and Croatia (LELEK's "Andromeda" at 5.9%). Standout performances elevated Moldova's festive "Viva, Moldova!" (2.3%), while dark horses like Sweden and Poland scraped through. Detailed points remain under wraps until post-Grand Final on May 16, leaving room for televote surprises but affirming Finland's cross-voter momentum.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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