Israel leads the market with a 44.5% implied probability thanks to standout televote projections and polished live staging for Noam Bettan’s “Michelle” during the May 12 first semi-final in Vienna. Finland sits close behind at 33% on the strength of its high-energy violin-pop hybrid “Liekinheitin,” which delivered powerful jury and audience scores in dress rehearsals. Moldova, Croatia, and Greece trail with single-digit odds after solid but less dominant runs, while the rest of the field remains longshots. The ongoing boycott controversy over Israel’s participation has not derailed its momentum, and traders are now focused on final voting tallies expected later tonight.