Finland's entry "Liekinheitin," performed by Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen, anchors the 73.5% implied probability for topping the first semi-final, thanks to its overall frontrunner status, high-energy mashup of anguished vocals and fiery violin, and dominant betting odds heading into the May 12 Vienna show. Israel sits at 14% after qualifying alongside Finland despite five countries boycotting over its participation, reflecting trader caution around geopolitical factors yet acknowledging its strong staging. Greece's 6.5% share draws from Akylas' "Ferto" and solid precursor momentum, while lower probabilities for Croatia, Lithuania, Moldova, Poland, Sweden, Belgium, and Serbia align with weaker critical reception and historical semi-final voting patterns that reward standout theatrical entries. The May 16 grand final offers no further catalyst for this market, as semi-final jury and public votes already locked in the outcome.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоEurovision 2026: First Semi-Final Winner
Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final Winner
Finland 78%
Israel 14%
Greece 7%
Croatia 4.8%
$225,880 Объем
$225,880 Объем
12 мая 2026 г.
Finland
78%
Israel
14%
Greece
7%
Croatia
5%
Lithuania
4%
Moldova
2%
Poland
2%
Sweden
<1%
Belgium
<1%
Serbia
<1%
Finland 78%
Israel 14%
Greece 7%
Croatia 4.8%
$225,880 Объем
$225,880 Объем
12 мая 2026 г.
Finland
$33,992 Объем
78%
Israel
$15,541 Объем
14%
Greece
$23,706 Объем
7%
Croatia
$23,238 Объем
5%
Lithuania
$13,879 Объем
4%
Moldova
$27,160 Объем
2%
Poland
$15,427 Объем
2%
Sweden
$14,507 Объем
<1%
Belgium
$7,799 Объем
<1%
Serbia
$11,005 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.Finland's entry "Liekinheitin," performed by Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen, anchors the 73.5% implied probability for topping the first semi-final, thanks to its overall frontrunner status, high-energy mashup of anguished vocals and fiery violin, and dominant betting odds heading into the May 12 Vienna show. Israel sits at 14% after qualifying alongside Finland despite five countries boycotting over its participation, reflecting trader caution around geopolitical factors yet acknowledging its strong staging. Greece's 6.5% share draws from Akylas' "Ferto" and solid precursor momentum, while lower probabilities for Croatia, Lithuania, Moldova, Poland, Sweden, Belgium, and Serbia align with weaker critical reception and historical semi-final voting patterns that reward standout theatrical entries. The May 16 grand final offers no further catalyst for this market, as semi-final jury and public votes already locked in the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Открытие рынка: May 7, 2026, 11:45 AM ET
Объем
$225,880Дата окончания
12 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 7, 2026, 11:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.Finland's entry "Liekinheitin," performed by Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen, anchors the 73.5% implied probability for topping the first semi-final, thanks to its overall frontrunner status, high-energy mashup of anguished vocals and fiery violin, and dominant betting odds heading into the May 12 Vienna show. Israel sits at 14% after qualifying alongside Finland despite five countries boycotting over its participation, reflecting trader caution around geopolitical factors yet acknowledging its strong staging. Greece's 6.5% share draws from Akylas' "Ferto" and solid precursor momentum, while lower probabilities for Croatia, Lithuania, Moldova, Poland, Sweden, Belgium, and Serbia align with weaker critical reception and historical semi-final voting patterns that reward standout theatrical entries. The May 16 grand final offers no further catalyst for this market, as semi-final jury and public votes already locked in the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Объем
$225,880Дата окончания
12 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 7, 2026, 11:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Finland's entry "Liekinheitin," performed by Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen, anchors the 73.5% implied probability for topping the first semi-final, thanks to its overall frontrunner status, high-energy mashup of anguished vocals and fiery violin, and dominant betting odds heading into the May 12 Vienna show. Israel sits at 14% after qualifying alongside Finland despite five countries boycotting over its participation, reflecting trader caution around geopolitical factors yet acknowledging its strong staging. Greece's 6.5% share draws from Akylas' "Ferto" and solid precursor momentum, while lower probabilities for Croatia, Lithuania, Moldova, Poland, Sweden, Belgium, and Serbia align with weaker critical reception and historical semi-final voting patterns that reward standout theatrical entries. The May 16 grand final offers no further catalyst for this market, as semi-final jury and public votes already locked in the outcome.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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