A Bolivian court reissued an arrest warrant for former President Evo Morales on May 11 after he failed to appear for a trial on charges of aggravated human trafficking involving a minor, declaring him in contempt; this follows an initial warrant from October 2024. Morales remains at large in the Chapare coca region, his political stronghold guarded by militant supporters who have vowed "national insurgency" and turmoil if authorities attempt capture. The trial is suspended until his appearance or detention, amid accusations of judicial lawfare amid Bolivia's political divisions. With the May 31 deadline approaching, traders price a 71.5% "No" probability reflecting the logistical challenges of apprehending him in this fortified area, absent escalated security operations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$11,849 Объем
$11,849 Объем
$11,849 Объем
$11,849 Объем
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Mar 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...A Bolivian court reissued an arrest warrant for former President Evo Morales on May 11 after he failed to appear for a trial on charges of aggravated human trafficking involving a minor, declaring him in contempt; this follows an initial warrant from October 2024. Morales remains at large in the Chapare coca region, his political stronghold guarded by militant supporters who have vowed "national insurgency" and turmoil if authorities attempt capture. The trial is suspended until his appearance or detention, amid accusations of judicial lawfare amid Bolivia's political divisions. With the May 31 deadline approaching, traders price a 71.5% "No" probability reflecting the logistical challenges of apprehending him in this fortified area, absent escalated security operations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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