The closely matched probabilities for 2026 U.S. GDP growth reflect uncertainty after the economy expanded at a 2.0 percent annualized rate in the first quarter, rebounding from 0.5 percent in the prior period. Business investment in AI-related equipment provided the main lift, while softer consumer spending and energy price spikes tied to the Iran conflict weighed on the outlook. Professional forecasters project annual growth near 2.5 percent, yet tariff effects, reduced immigration, and sticky core inflation near 3.2 percent on a PCE basis have tempered expectations for stronger outcomes above 2.5 percent. Resilient labor market data, with unemployment at 4.3 percent, support the case for moderate expansion in the 1.5–2.0 percent range. Traders will watch the May 28 second-quarter GDP estimate, upcoming employment reports, and Federal Reserve communications for signals on whether growth sustains or slows further.