The Greater Manchester mayoral by-election on 30 July 2026, triggered by Andy Burnham’s resignation after winning the Makerfield parliamentary seat, features a compressed timeline that keeps probabilities clustered among leading Labour figures and several opposition contenders. Trader pricing reflects uncertainty over Labour’s selection process, with Bev Craig positioned as the frontrunner alongside names such as Arooj Shah and others in the party’s local base, while Paul Dennett serves only as interim acting mayor. Recent developments, including the by-election date confirmation and candidate speculation, have prevented any single outcome from pulling ahead decisively. Factors such as voter turnout patterns, supplementary vote mechanics, and the performance of Reform UK, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Green, and independent candidates could still shift implied probabilities before nominations close and ballots are cast.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБев Крэйг 71%
Джеральдин Коггинс 22%
Дэн Баркер 4.0%
Кейт Грин 1.6%
Бев Крэйг
71%
Джеральдин Коггинс
22%
Дэн Баркер
4%
Кейт Грин
2%
Лора Эванс
2%
Пол Деннетт
1%
Джейк Остин
1%
Арудж Шах
1%
Ник Бакли
<1%
Ханна Спенсер
<1%
Бев Крэйг 71%
Джеральдин Коггинс 22%
Дэн Баркер 4.0%
Кейт Грин 1.6%
Бев Крэйг
71%
Джеральдин Коггинс
22%
Дэн Баркер
4%
Кейт Грин
2%
Лора Эванс
2%
Пол Деннетт
1%
Джейк Остин
1%
Арудж Шах
1%
Ник Бакли
<1%
Ханна Спенсер
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Greater Manchester as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).
Открытие рынка: Jun 19, 2026, 11:58 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Greater Manchester as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The Greater Manchester mayoral by-election on 30 July 2026, triggered by Andy Burnham’s resignation after winning the Makerfield parliamentary seat, features a compressed timeline that keeps probabilities clustered among leading Labour figures and several opposition contenders. Trader pricing reflects uncertainty over Labour’s selection process, with Bev Craig positioned as the frontrunner alongside names such as Arooj Shah and others in the party’s local base, while Paul Dennett serves only as interim acting mayor. Recent developments, including the by-election date confirmation and candidate speculation, have prevented any single outcome from pulling ahead decisively. Factors such as voter turnout patterns, supplementary vote mechanics, and the performance of Reform UK, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Green, and independent candidates could still shift implied probabilities before nominations close and ballots are cast.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы