Labour’s commanding parliamentary majority, secured in the 2024 general election, continues to insulate Keir Starmer’s government from any realistic prospect of a no-confidence motion reaching a vote before June 30. Recent opposition calls from the Conservatives and SNP, triggered by local-election setbacks and the Mandelson appointment controversy, have produced public statements but no formal tabled motion. Junior-minister resignations and internal grumbling have surfaced, yet party whips have maintained discipline and no cross-party coalition has materialised to force Commons time. With only weeks remaining and no scheduled procedural trigger before the deadline, traders assign an 88.5 percent probability that no such vote will occur.