Multiple open seats from term-limited or retiring incumbents in swing and lean states have produced tightly matched general election matchups, with Georgia, Ohio, Iowa, and Wisconsin rated toss-ups or near-toss-ups by forecasters amid narrow polling averages and open primaries that yielded competitive nominees. Trader consensus on Texas, Ohio, Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin reflects these dynamics plus historical volatility in those states, while Georgia and Nevada add uncertainty from candidate spending and turnout patterns. Late polling shifts, debate performances, or national economic signals before November could widen margins in any of these contests and reorder probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоTexas 15.7%
Огайо 13.1%
Iowa 11.8%
Wisconsin 11.6%
$14,007 Объем
$14,007 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Texas
16%
Огайо
13%
Iowa
12%
Wisconsin
12%
Georgia
11%
Nevada
9%
Kansas
6%
Флорида
6%
Alaska
11%
Колорадо
5%
New Hampshire
5%
New Mexico
4%
Arizona
3%
Мичиган
1%
Maine
1%
Oregon
1%
Vermont
1%
Minnesota
24%
Texas 15.7%
Огайо 13.1%
Iowa 11.8%
Wisconsin 11.6%
$14,007 Объем
$14,007 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Texas
$1,689 Объем
16%
Огайо
$788 Объем
13%
Iowa
$1,485 Объем
12%
Wisconsin
$1,197 Объем
12%
Georgia
$424 Объем
11%
Nevada
$2,878 Объем
9%
Kansas
$2,325 Объем
6%
Флорида
$234 Объем
6%
Alaska
$242 Объем
11%
Колорадо
$248 Объем
5%
New Hampshire
$534 Объем
5%
New Mexico
$235 Объем
4%
Arizona
$274 Объем
3%
Мичиган
$334 Объем
1%
Maine
$360 Объем
1%
Oregon
$331 Объем
1%
Vermont
$181 Объем
1%
Minnesota
$249 Объем
24%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Multiple open seats from term-limited or retiring incumbents in swing and lean states have produced tightly matched general election matchups, with Georgia, Ohio, Iowa, and Wisconsin rated toss-ups or near-toss-ups by forecasters amid narrow polling averages and open primaries that yielded competitive nominees. Trader consensus on Texas, Ohio, Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin reflects these dynamics plus historical volatility in those states, while Georgia and Nevada add uncertainty from candidate spending and turnout patterns. Late polling shifts, debate performances, or national economic signals before November could widen margins in any of these contests and reorder probabilities.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Объем
$14,007Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Multiple open seats from term-limited or retiring incumbents in swing and lean states have produced tightly matched general election matchups, with Georgia, Ohio, Iowa, and Wisconsin rated toss-ups or near-toss-ups by forecasters amid narrow polling averages and open primaries that yielded competitive nominees. Trader consensus on Texas, Ohio, Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin reflects these dynamics plus historical volatility in those states, while Georgia and Nevada add uncertainty from candidate spending and turnout patterns. Late polling shifts, debate performances, or national economic signals before November could widen margins in any of these contests and reorder probabilities.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$14,007Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Multiple open seats from term-limited or retiring incumbents in swing and lean states have produced tightly matched general election matchups, with Georgia, Ohio, Iowa, and Wisconsin rated toss-ups or near-toss-ups by forecasters amid narrow polling averages and open primaries that yielded competitive nominees. Trader consensus on Texas, Ohio, Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin reflects these dynamics plus historical volatility in those states, while Georgia and Nevada add uncertainty from candidate spending and turnout patterns. Late polling shifts, debate performances, or national economic signals before November could widen margins in any of these contests and reorder probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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