Recent primaries and early general election polling have positioned Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Kansas among the tightest 2026 gubernatorial contests. In Ohio, an open seat features a Republican nominee facing a Democratic challenger in surveys showing margins of roughly 1-2 points. Wisconsin's just-completed Democratic primary produced a narrow winner who now confronts a Republican nominee in a race rated toss-up or lean Democratic by multiple forecasters. Comparable dynamics appear in Iowa and Kansas open seats, where candidate recruitment, partisan turnout patterns, and state-level economic conditions sustain narrow projected margins. These factors keep trader probabilities clustered near the top of the market. Later polling releases, candidate debates, turnout shifts in key counties, or national political developments could widen gaps and reorder the field before November.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоОгайо 18.4%
New Hampshire 14.0%
Wisconsin 12.6%
Kansas 12.2%
$11,682 Объем
$11,682 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Огайо
18%
New Hampshire
9%
Wisconsin
13%
Kansas
12%
Iowa
12%
Texas
12%
Флорида
15%
Alaska
10%
Georgia
9%
Nevada
7%
Мичиган
5%
Vermont
4%
Minnesota
3%
Oregon
3%
Maine
3%
Колорадо
2%
New Mexico
2%
Arizona
1%
Огайо 18.4%
New Hampshire 14.0%
Wisconsin 12.6%
Kansas 12.2%
$11,682 Объем
$11,682 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Огайо
$423 Объем
18%
New Hampshire
$272 Объем
9%
Wisconsin
$970 Объем
13%
Kansas
$2,109 Объем
12%
Iowa
$1,480 Объем
12%
Texas
$1,569 Объем
12%
Флорида
$224 Объем
15%
Alaska
$207 Объем
10%
Georgia
$297 Объем
9%
Nevada
$2,034 Объем
7%
Мичиган
$329 Объем
5%
Vermont
$176 Объем
4%
Minnesota
$214 Объем
3%
Oregon
$319 Объем
3%
Maine
$355 Объем
3%
Колорадо
$243 Объем
2%
New Mexico
$194 Объем
2%
Arizona
$269 Объем
1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent primaries and early general election polling have positioned Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Kansas among the tightest 2026 gubernatorial contests. In Ohio, an open seat features a Republican nominee facing a Democratic challenger in surveys showing margins of roughly 1-2 points. Wisconsin's just-completed Democratic primary produced a narrow winner who now confronts a Republican nominee in a race rated toss-up or lean Democratic by multiple forecasters. Comparable dynamics appear in Iowa and Kansas open seats, where candidate recruitment, partisan turnout patterns, and state-level economic conditions sustain narrow projected margins. These factors keep trader probabilities clustered near the top of the market. Later polling releases, candidate debates, turnout shifts in key counties, or national political developments could widen gaps and reorder the field before November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Объем
$11,682Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent primaries and early general election polling have positioned Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Kansas among the tightest 2026 gubernatorial contests. In Ohio, an open seat features a Republican nominee facing a Democratic challenger in surveys showing margins of roughly 1-2 points. Wisconsin's just-completed Democratic primary produced a narrow winner who now confronts a Republican nominee in a race rated toss-up or lean Democratic by multiple forecasters. Comparable dynamics appear in Iowa and Kansas open seats, where candidate recruitment, partisan turnout patterns, and state-level economic conditions sustain narrow projected margins. These factors keep trader probabilities clustered near the top of the market. Later polling releases, candidate debates, turnout shifts in key counties, or national political developments could widen gaps and reorder the field before November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$11,682Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent primaries and early general election polling have positioned Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Kansas among the tightest 2026 gubernatorial contests. In Ohio, an open seat features a Republican nominee facing a Democratic challenger in surveys showing margins of roughly 1-2 points. Wisconsin's just-completed Democratic primary produced a narrow winner who now confronts a Republican nominee in a race rated toss-up or lean Democratic by multiple forecasters. Comparable dynamics appear in Iowa and Kansas open seats, where candidate recruitment, partisan turnout patterns, and state-level economic conditions sustain narrow projected margins. These factors keep trader probabilities clustered near the top of the market. Later polling releases, candidate debates, turnout shifts in key counties, or national political developments could widen gaps and reorder the field before November.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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