Trader consensus on the closest 2026 Senate race centers on Texas and Iowa because recent polling averages show margins of one to three points in both contests, reflecting tight partisan divides, high-quality nominees on each side, and competitive voter mobilization in states with shifting suburban and rural turnout. Texas features a near-even matchup between the Republican nominee and a Democratic challenger that has narrowed sharply in summer surveys, while Iowa’s open Republican-held seat shows similar structural closeness amid primary results and fundraising parity. Ohio’s special election, Alaska, and Maine remain in contention as toss-ups per multiple forecasters, with candidate strength and ranked-choice voting quirks in Alaska adding uncertainty. Late-cycle polls, economic data releases before November 3, and turnout shifts in key counties could widen or further compress these margins.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоClosest Senate Race?
Closest Senate Race?
Texas 26%
Iowa 22.4%
Maine 15%
Ohio (Special) 14.3%
$28,230 Объем
$28,230 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Texas
26%
Iowa
22%
Maine
15%
Ohio (Special)
14%
Alaska
12%
Nebraska
5%
Michigan
5%
New Mexico
3%
Florida (Special)
3%
Virginia
2%
North Carolina
2%
New Hampshire
1%
Georgia
1%
Colorado
1%
Minnesota
1%
Montana
<1%
Texas 26%
Iowa 22.4%
Maine 15%
Ohio (Special) 14.3%
$28,230 Объем
$28,230 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Texas
$1,078 Объем
26%
Iowa
$2,677 Объем
22%
Maine
$1,285 Объем
15%
Ohio (Special)
$5,040 Объем
14%
Alaska
$5,272 Объем
12%
Nebraska
$275 Объем
5%
Michigan
$2,490 Объем
5%
New Mexico
$160 Объем
3%
Florida (Special)
$253 Объем
3%
Virginia
$5,073 Объем
2%
North Carolina
$621 Объем
2%
New Hampshire
$485 Объем
1%
Georgia
$752 Объем
1%
Colorado
$662 Объем
1%
Minnesota
$1,489 Объем
1%
Montana
$616 Объем
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on the closest 2026 Senate race centers on Texas and Iowa because recent polling averages show margins of one to three points in both contests, reflecting tight partisan divides, high-quality nominees on each side, and competitive voter mobilization in states with shifting suburban and rural turnout. Texas features a near-even matchup between the Republican nominee and a Democratic challenger that has narrowed sharply in summer surveys, while Iowa’s open Republican-held seat shows similar structural closeness amid primary results and fundraising parity. Ohio’s special election, Alaska, and Maine remain in contention as toss-ups per multiple forecasters, with candidate strength and ranked-choice voting quirks in Alaska adding uncertainty. Late-cycle polls, economic data releases before November 3, and turnout shifts in key counties could widen or further compress these margins.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
Объем
$28,230Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on the closest 2026 Senate race centers on Texas and Iowa because recent polling averages show margins of one to three points in both contests, reflecting tight partisan divides, high-quality nominees on each side, and competitive voter mobilization in states with shifting suburban and rural turnout. Texas features a near-even matchup between the Republican nominee and a Democratic challenger that has narrowed sharply in summer surveys, while Iowa’s open Republican-held seat shows similar structural closeness amid primary results and fundraising parity. Ohio’s special election, Alaska, and Maine remain in contention as toss-ups per multiple forecasters, with candidate strength and ranked-choice voting quirks in Alaska adding uncertainty. Late-cycle polls, economic data releases before November 3, and turnout shifts in key counties could widen or further compress these margins.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$28,230Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on the closest 2026 Senate race centers on Texas and Iowa because recent polling averages show margins of one to three points in both contests, reflecting tight partisan divides, high-quality nominees on each side, and competitive voter mobilization in states with shifting suburban and rural turnout. Texas features a near-even matchup between the Republican nominee and a Democratic challenger that has narrowed sharply in summer surveys, while Iowa’s open Republican-held seat shows similar structural closeness amid primary results and fundraising parity. Ohio’s special election, Alaska, and Maine remain in contention as toss-ups per multiple forecasters, with candidate strength and ranked-choice voting quirks in Alaska adding uncertainty. Late-cycle polls, economic data releases before November 3, and turnout shifts in key counties could widen or further compress these margins.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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