Recent polling in Texas, Iowa, and the Ohio special election shows margins of three points or less between leading candidates, reflecting narrow partisan leans and strong nominee matchups that keep these contests among the tightest on the 2026 Senate map. Trader consensus on these states as the closest aligns with their positioning near the national average in swing-state fundamentals, limited polling movement over the past month, and absence of decisive late-cycle events. Key variables that could widen gaps include additional surveys clarifying turnout patterns among key voting blocs, candidate debates, or shifts in national conditions affecting battleground states. Markets treat these probabilities as crowd-sourced assessments of current dynamics rather than fixed outcomes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоClosest Senate Race?
Closest Senate Race?
Texas 25%
Iowa 22.4%
Maine 15%
Ohio (Special) 14.7%
$28,210 Объем
$28,210 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Texas
25%
Iowa
22%
Maine
15%
Ohio (Special)
15%
Alaska
12%
Michigan
6%
Nebraska
5%
New Mexico
3%
Florida (Special)
3%
Virginia
2%
North Carolina
2%
New Hampshire
2%
Georgia
1%
Colorado
1%
Minnesota
1%
Montana
<1%
Texas 25%
Iowa 22.4%
Maine 15%
Ohio (Special) 14.7%
$28,210 Объем
$28,210 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Texas
$1,058 Объем
25%
Iowa
$2,677 Объем
22%
Maine
$1,285 Объем
15%
Ohio (Special)
$5,040 Объем
15%
Alaska
$5,272 Объем
12%
Michigan
$2,490 Объем
6%
Nebraska
$275 Объем
5%
New Mexico
$160 Объем
3%
Florida (Special)
$253 Объем
3%
Virginia
$5,073 Объем
2%
North Carolina
$621 Объем
2%
New Hampshire
$485 Объем
2%
Georgia
$752 Объем
1%
Colorado
$662 Объем
1%
Minnesota
$1,489 Объем
1%
Montana
$616 Объем
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling in Texas, Iowa, and the Ohio special election shows margins of three points or less between leading candidates, reflecting narrow partisan leans and strong nominee matchups that keep these contests among the tightest on the 2026 Senate map. Trader consensus on these states as the closest aligns with their positioning near the national average in swing-state fundamentals, limited polling movement over the past month, and absence of decisive late-cycle events. Key variables that could widen gaps include additional surveys clarifying turnout patterns among key voting blocs, candidate debates, or shifts in national conditions affecting battleground states. Markets treat these probabilities as crowd-sourced assessments of current dynamics rather than fixed outcomes.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
Объем
$28,210Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling in Texas, Iowa, and the Ohio special election shows margins of three points or less between leading candidates, reflecting narrow partisan leans and strong nominee matchups that keep these contests among the tightest on the 2026 Senate map. Trader consensus on these states as the closest aligns with their positioning near the national average in swing-state fundamentals, limited polling movement over the past month, and absence of decisive late-cycle events. Key variables that could widen gaps include additional surveys clarifying turnout patterns among key voting blocs, candidate debates, or shifts in national conditions affecting battleground states. Markets treat these probabilities as crowd-sourced assessments of current dynamics rather than fixed outcomes.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$28,210Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling in Texas, Iowa, and the Ohio special election shows margins of three points or less between leading candidates, reflecting narrow partisan leans and strong nominee matchups that keep these contests among the tightest on the 2026 Senate map. Trader consensus on these states as the closest aligns with their positioning near the national average in swing-state fundamentals, limited polling movement over the past month, and absence of decisive late-cycle events. Key variables that could widen gaps include additional surveys clarifying turnout patterns among key voting blocs, candidate debates, or shifts in national conditions affecting battleground states. Markets treat these probabilities as crowd-sourced assessments of current dynamics rather than fixed outcomes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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