Recent polling from mid-August shows incumbent Sen. Ed Markey expanding his lead over Rep. Seth Moulton to 15–28 points among likely Democratic primary voters, reversing a tighter June contest and boosting trader expectations for a comfortable Markey victory margin ahead of the Sept. 1 primary. Markey’s advantages in trust on issues, support among liberals, women, and seniors, plus incumbency and party endorsement have consolidated backing, while Moulton’s emphasis on generational turnover and age has gained less traction among core primary voters. With early voting underway and a final debate completed, the market pricing around Markey margins of 15–40%+ alongside elevated “other” odds reflects the wisdom of crowds assessing these late shifts in a low-turnout contest.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПервичная маржа победы демократического сената Массачусетса
Первичная маржа победы демократического сената Массачусетса
Марки 40%+ 33%
Марки 15–20% 32%
Марки 25–30% 32%
Марки 30–35% 31%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
1 сент. 2026 г.
Марки 40%+
33%
Марки 35–40%
24%
Марки 30–35%
31%
Марки 25–30%
32%
Марки 20–25%
31%
Марки 15–20%
32%
Марки 10–15%
31%
Марки 5–10%
26%
Марки <5%
27%
Моултон <5%
28%
Моултон 5%+
10%
Марки 40%+ 33%
Марки 15–20% 32%
Марки 25–30% 32%
Марки 30–35% 31%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
1 сент. 2026 г.
Марки 40%+
$16 Объем
33%
Марки 35–40%
$16 Объем
24%
Марки 30–35%
$16 Объем
31%
Марки 25–30%
$16 Объем
32%
Марки 20–25%
$16 Объем
31%
Марки 15–20%
$16 Объем
32%
Марки 10–15%
$16 Объем
31%
Марки 5–10%
$16 Объем
26%
Марки <5%
$16 Объем
27%
Моултон <5%
$16 Объем
28%
Моултон 5%+
$101 Объем
10%
The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polling from mid-August shows incumbent Sen. Ed Markey expanding his lead over Rep. Seth Moulton to 15–28 points among likely Democratic primary voters, reversing a tighter June contest and boosting trader expectations for a comfortable Markey victory margin ahead of the Sept. 1 primary. Markey’s advantages in trust on issues, support among liberals, women, and seniors, plus incumbency and party endorsement have consolidated backing, while Moulton’s emphasis on generational turnover and age has gained less traction among core primary voters. With early voting underway and a final debate completed, the market pricing around Markey margins of 15–40%+ alongside elevated “other” odds reflects the wisdom of crowds assessing these late shifts in a low-turnout contest.
The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Открытие рынка: Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 PM ET
Объем
$261Дата окончания
1 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.sec.state.ma.us/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polling from mid-August shows incumbent Sen. Ed Markey expanding his lead over Rep. Seth Moulton to 15–28 points among likely Democratic primary voters, reversing a tighter June contest and boosting trader expectations for a comfortable Markey victory margin ahead of the Sept. 1 primary. Markey’s advantages in trust on issues, support among liberals, women, and seniors, plus incumbency and party endorsement have consolidated backing, while Moulton’s emphasis on generational turnover and age has gained less traction among core primary voters. With early voting underway and a final debate completed, the market pricing around Markey margins of 15–40%+ alongside elevated “other” odds reflects the wisdom of crowds assessing these late shifts in a low-turnout contest.
The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Объем
$261Дата окончания
1 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.sec.state.ma.us/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from mid-August shows incumbent Sen. Ed Markey expanding his lead over Rep. Seth Moulton to 15–28 points among likely Democratic primary voters, reversing a tighter June contest and boosting trader expectations for a comfortable Markey victory margin ahead of the Sept. 1 primary. Markey’s advantages in trust on issues, support among liberals, women, and seniors, plus incumbency and party endorsement have consolidated backing, while Moulton’s emphasis on generational turnover and age has gained less traction among core primary voters. With early voting underway and a final debate completed, the market pricing around Markey margins of 15–40%+ alongside elevated “other” odds reflects the wisdom of crowds assessing these late shifts in a low-turnout contest.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Победит ли кандидат от Демократической партии на выборах в Сенат Массачусетса в 2026 году с разницей в 35%-40%?
21%
Да
Выиграет ли Абдул Эль-Сайед праймериз Демократической партии в Сенат штата Мичиган с отрывом менее 5%?
100%
Да
Победит ли кандидат от Демократической партии на выборах губернатора Массачусетса в 2026 году с разницей в 25%-30%?
21%
Да
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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