Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s dominant 95.5% market-implied probability stems from its record-shattering 2026 run, including the biggest domestic opening weekend ever at $360 million and a swift climb past $950 million in North America to claim the all-time U.S. crown previously held by Star Wars: The Force Awakens. The Tom Holland–Zendaya vehicle, directed by Destin Daniel Cretton, benefited from exceptional word-of-mouth, strong critical reception, and franchise momentum that produced legs of 2.6x and a global haul approaching $2.5 billion—already more than $750 million ahead of The Odyssey. With only months left in the year, later releases such as Avengers: Doomsday would need historic per-theater averages and minimal competition to close the gap, a scenario traders view as highly improbable given current tracking and historical precedent for December tentpoles.