Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources, including Chinese agencies and international models, indicate a highest temperature in Chengdu on October 4 most likely between 23–25°C amid persistent cloud cover, light rain or drizzle, and light westerly to northerly winds. These conditions limit daytime solar heating and promote evaporative cooling in the Sichuan basin, where autumn transitions often feature stable, overcast weather rather than clear-sky warming. Model consensus shows modest variability tied to exact precipitation timing and boundary-layer moisture, with some runs favoring a peak near 24°C and others edging toward 25°C depending on cloud breaks. Official station observations from the China Meteorological Administration will determine the precise maximum, aligning with the closely matched market-implied odds around these central outcomes. Updated short-range guidance expected overnight could refine the range ahead of resolution.