Recent Met Office and ensemble model guidance indicate a high of 22–23 °C for London on 5 September, driven by a west-to-northwesterly flow under building high pressure that favors mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and light winds. This keeps daytime maxima near or slightly above the early-September climatological average while suppressing significant warm advection or strong insolation. Updated runs over the past 48 hours have shown little shift, with minimal model spread around the central forecast and only modest upside risk if cloud cover decreases further. Trader consensus reflected in the market—43 % on 23 °C and 33 % on 22 °C—aligns closely with this guidance, while the smaller probabilities assigned to 24 °C and 21 °C capture residual uncertainty in timing of any frontal passage or diurnal variation.