Latest global model consensus, including GFS output, points to a daytime maximum of 11–12°C in Moscow on October 13 under overcast skies with light showers and a northerly wind shift following warmer southerly flow on the 12th. This pattern limits solar heating while advecting cooler maritime air, keeping temperatures above the long-term average high of roughly 9°C yet below the 15–16°C readings possible without widespread cloud cover or precipitation. Ensemble spreads remain narrow, supporting the tight clustering of trader-implied probabilities around 11°C and 12°C, though minor timing differences in the frontal passage could still nudge the observed peak by 1–2°C. Updated national meteorological agency runs and higher-resolution guidance expected within the next 24 hours will further refine the range.