Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Seattle on August 15, 2026, indicate a peak temperature most likely in the mid- to upper-70s, aligning with the market's leading 74–77 °F bins. Persistent onshore flow from the cool northeast Pacific, combined with a moderating marine layer and sea-surface temperatures near seasonal norms, limits afternoon heating despite a broader warmer-than-average summer pattern. Afternoon clearing has allowed temperatures to climb into the mid-70s by early afternoon, with little evidence of stronger offshore warming or downslope effects that could push readings higher. Updated short-range forecasts and real-time observations continue to reinforce this range, keeping higher-temperature contracts at minimal implied probability.