**Strong model consensus and stable synoptic conditions have driven near-certainty around a 36°C daily maximum in Taipei on September 29, 2026.** Multiple forecasts from sources including local meteorological services and global models (GFS, ECMWF) project a peak of 35–36°C (95–97°F) under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, light westerly to northwesterly winds, and minimal precipitation risk (<5–10%). This aligns with late-September climatology for the region, where subtropical high pressure typically supports hot, humid afternoons with highs in the mid-30s°C before the onset of more frequent autumn frontal systems. Official observations through the afternoon show temperatures climbing steadily into the mid-30s°C, with heat indices elevated by humidity but no convective development to suppress the peak. The 100% market-implied probability for exactly 36°C reflects traders’ assessment that the official Central Weather Administration or equivalent station reading will resolve at or extremely close to this threshold, consistent with the tight clustering of model guidance. Realistic challenges remain limited but include any last-hour increase in cloud cover or a localized sea-breeze effect that caps the high at 35°C or below, or an unforecasted brief shower. Given the current absence of such signals in the latest model runs and observations, these outcomes carry negligible probability in the near term.