Official Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for July 11 point to a maximum near 31°C under partly cloudy skies, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 29–31°C. A strong Pacific High extending over Honshu sustains above-normal warmth following early-July records, yet increasing moisture and possible afternoon cloud cover introduce modest cooling that favors the 30°C outcome over higher thresholds. Historical July averages near 31°C provide context, while model consensus on limited intensification from subtropical flow keeps probabilities for 32°C or above under 10%. Updated JMA guidance and satellite observations ahead of resolution will clarify any late adjustments from steering patterns or humidity.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Токио 11 июля?
30°C 40%
29°C 30%
31°C 19%
28°C 8%
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
3%
28°C
8%
29°C
30%
30°C
40%
31°C
19%
32°C
3%
33°C
1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
30°C 40%
29°C 30%
31°C 19%
28°C 8%
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
3%
28°C
8%
29°C
30%
30°C
40%
31°C
19%
32°C
3%
33°C
1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Jul 9, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for July 11 point to a maximum near 31°C under partly cloudy skies, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 29–31°C. A strong Pacific High extending over Honshu sustains above-normal warmth following early-July records, yet increasing moisture and possible afternoon cloud cover introduce modest cooling that favors the 30°C outcome over higher thresholds. Historical July averages near 31°C provide context, while model consensus on limited intensification from subtropical flow keeps probabilities for 32°C or above under 10%. Updated JMA guidance and satellite observations ahead of resolution will clarify any late adjustments from steering patterns or humidity.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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