**Stable high-pressure conditions and consistent numerical weather prediction model output position 22°C as the leading outcome for Warsaw’s maximum temperature on October 3.** Forecasts from GFS and other global models show light southerly to southeasterly flow, mostly clear to hazy skies, and daytime highs of 21–22°C (roughly 70°F), with limited cloud cover and minimal precipitation risk keeping values above the early-October climatological average. Recent model runs have shown little shift, supporting the market’s strong implied probability on 22°C while leaving modest room for 21°C or 23°C depending on exact observational timing and microscale variations. Official measurements from Polish meteorological services will determine the final recorded high.