**Wellington's winter temperature variability centers on southerly airflow strength and cloud cover as the key drivers for July 8 maximums.** Official climatology places the July average high near 12°C, with NIWA's May–July 2026 outlook assigning roughly equal chances of near-average or below-average conditions for the Wellington region amid typical Southern Ocean influences. Short-range guidance from MetService currently shows highs around 12°C under mostly cloudy skies and easing but persistent southerlies, which advect cooler maritime air and limit daytime warming. Minor model differences in front timing or wind backing could easily tip the daily peak between 11–13°C, explaining why the market assigns nearly equal implied probabilities to 12°C (42.5%) and 13°C (39.5%). Clearer skies or a temporary northerly component would favor the upper end of that narrow range, while stronger onshore flow or showers would cap readings closer to 11°C. Updated NWP runs and the next MetService briefing remain the primary near-term catalysts for any shift in trader positioning.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Wellington on July 8?
Highest temperature in Wellington on July 8?
12°C 44%
13°C 43%
11°C 11%
14°C 3.4%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
8 июл. 2026 г.
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
2%
11°C
11%
12°C
44%
13°C
43%
14°C
3%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C or higher
<1%
12°C 44%
13°C 43%
11°C 11%
14°C 3.4%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
8 июл. 2026 г.
7°C or below
$147 Объем
<1%
8°C
$113 Объем
<1%
9°C
$153 Объем
<1%
10°C
$274 Объем
2%
11°C
$343 Объем
11%
12°C
$1,547 Объем
44%
13°C
$279 Объем
43%
14°C
$127 Объем
3%
15°C
$110 Объем
<1%
16°C
$107 Объем
<1%
17°C or higher
$106 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Wellington's winter temperature variability centers on southerly airflow strength and cloud cover as the key drivers for July 8 maximums.** Official climatology places the July average high near 12°C, with NIWA's May–July 2026 outlook assigning roughly equal chances of near-average or below-average conditions for the Wellington region amid typical Southern Ocean influences. Short-range guidance from MetService currently shows highs around 12°C under mostly cloudy skies and easing but persistent southerlies, which advect cooler maritime air and limit daytime warming. Minor model differences in front timing or wind backing could easily tip the daily peak between 11–13°C, explaining why the market assigns nearly equal implied probabilities to 12°C (42.5%) and 13°C (39.5%). Clearer skies or a temporary northerly component would favor the upper end of that narrow range, while stronger onshore flow or showers would cap readings closer to 11°C. Updated NWP runs and the next MetService briefing remain the primary near-term catalysts for any shift in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Jul 6, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Объем
$3,308Дата окончания
8 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 6, 2026, 12:02 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Wellington's winter temperature variability centers on southerly airflow strength and cloud cover as the key drivers for July 8 maximums.** Official climatology places the July average high near 12°C, with NIWA's May–July 2026 outlook assigning roughly equal chances of near-average or below-average conditions for the Wellington region amid typical Southern Ocean influences. Short-range guidance from MetService currently shows highs around 12°C under mostly cloudy skies and easing but persistent southerlies, which advect cooler maritime air and limit daytime warming. Minor model differences in front timing or wind backing could easily tip the daily peak between 11–13°C, explaining why the market assigns nearly equal implied probabilities to 12°C (42.5%) and 13°C (39.5%). Clearer skies or a temporary northerly component would favor the upper end of that narrow range, while stronger onshore flow or showers would cap readings closer to 11°C. Updated NWP runs and the next MetService briefing remain the primary near-term catalysts for any shift in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$3,308Дата окончания
8 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 6, 2026, 12:02 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Wellington's winter temperature variability centers on southerly airflow strength and cloud cover as the key drivers for July 8 maximums.** Official climatology places the July average high near 12°C, with NIWA's May–July 2026 outlook assigning roughly equal chances of near-average or below-average conditions for the Wellington region amid typical Southern Ocean influences. Short-range guidance from MetService currently shows highs around 12°C under mostly cloudy skies and easing but persistent southerlies, which advect cooler maritime air and limit daytime warming. Minor model differences in front timing or wind backing could easily tip the daily peak between 11–13°C, explaining why the market assigns nearly equal implied probabilities to 12°C (42.5%) and 13°C (39.5%). Clearer skies or a temporary northerly component would favor the upper end of that narrow range, while stronger onshore flow or showers would cap readings closer to 11°C. Updated NWP runs and the next MetService briefing remain the primary near-term catalysts for any shift in trader positioning.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы