Recent forecast models from sources including MetService-aligned outputs and international agencies indicate a daytime maximum of 14–15°C for Wellington on October 6, driven by northerly winds, mostly clear skies, and stable springtime pressure patterns. This aligns with the market-implied emphasis on 16°C and 15°C as leading outcomes, reflecting trader consensus on modest warming above recent daily averages near 13–14°C. Model agreement remains high with limited spread, though minor upward revisions could occur if afternoon mixing strengthens; no significant frontal systems or cloud cover increases are projected to suppress the peak. Historical October baselines around 16°C provide context but current observational trends favor the narrower 15–16°C range for resolution.