The Federal Reserve's October 28 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.75-4.00% while upgrading its growth assessment and signaling further tightening remains possible has been the dominant driver of 2-year Treasury yields this month. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, resilient GDP growth, and heavy Treasury issuance have supported yields near multi-year highs, with the 2-year peaking above 4.8% early in October before easing to around 4.61% by October 29 amid the policy pause and incoming data. Two dissents favoring a hike underscored hawkish sentiment, while upcoming catalysts including the December FOMC meeting, fresh PCE readings, and labor reports will shape trader views on the near-term rate path and implied probability of additional tightening.
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