Recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh and elevated inflation readings near 3.3% for both CPI and core PCE have anchored the 30-year Treasury yield near 5.27% as of September 2, 2026, reflecting a higher term premium and reduced expectations for near-term policy easing. Persistent fiscal deficits exceeding $40 trillion in debt, heavy Treasury supply, and competing corporate issuance tied to AI infrastructure continue to pressure the long end, while geopolitical tensions around Iran add upside risks to energy prices and inflation breakevens. Real yields have driven most of the recent backup rather than shifting inflation expectations. Key near-term catalysts include the September 4 employment report, September 11 CPI release, and the September 15–16 FOMC meeting with updated projections, which will clarify the balance between growth resilience and any potential rate adjustment.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоНОВОЕ
30 дек. 2026 г.
Ниже 5,20%
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Ниже 5,10%
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Ниже 5,05%
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Ниже 5,00%
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Ниже 4,95%
50%
Ниже 4,90%
49%
Ниже 4,80%
49%
Ниже 4,60%
47%
$0.00 Объем
Ниже 5,20%
$0 Объем
50%
Ниже 5,15%
$0 Объем
50%
Ниже 5,10%
$0 Объем
50%
Ниже 5,05%
$0 Объем
50%
Ниже 5,00%
$0 Объем
50%
Ниже 4,95%
$0 Объем
50%
Ниже 4,90%
$0 Объем
49%
Ниже 4,80%
$0 Объем
49%
Ниже 4,60%
$0 Объем
47%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh and elevated inflation readings near 3.3% for both CPI and core PCE have anchored the 30-year Treasury yield near 5.27% as of September 2, 2026, reflecting a higher term premium and reduced expectations for near-term policy easing. Persistent fiscal deficits exceeding $40 trillion in debt, heavy Treasury supply, and competing corporate issuance tied to AI infrastructure continue to pressure the long end, while geopolitical tensions around Iran add upside risks to energy prices and inflation breakevens. Real yields have driven most of the recent backup rather than shifting inflation expectations. Key near-term catalysts include the September 4 employment report, September 11 CPI release, and the September 15–16 FOMC meeting with updated projections, which will clarify the balance between growth resilience and any potential rate adjustment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Открытие рынка: Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Объем
$0Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh and elevated inflation readings near 3.3% for both CPI and core PCE have anchored the 30-year Treasury yield near 5.27% as of September 2, 2026, reflecting a higher term premium and reduced expectations for near-term policy easing. Persistent fiscal deficits exceeding $40 trillion in debt, heavy Treasury supply, and competing corporate issuance tied to AI infrastructure continue to pressure the long end, while geopolitical tensions around Iran add upside risks to energy prices and inflation breakevens. Real yields have driven most of the recent backup rather than shifting inflation expectations. Key near-term catalysts include the September 4 employment report, September 11 CPI release, and the September 15–16 FOMC meeting with updated projections, which will clarify the balance between growth resilience and any potential rate adjustment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Объем
$0Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh and elevated inflation readings near 3.3% for both CPI and core PCE have anchored the 30-year Treasury yield near 5.27% as of September 2, 2026, reflecting a higher term premium and reduced expectations for near-term policy easing. Persistent fiscal deficits exceeding $40 trillion in debt, heavy Treasury supply, and competing corporate issuance tied to AI infrastructure continue to pressure the long end, while geopolitical tensions around Iran add upside risks to energy prices and inflation breakevens. Real yields have driven most of the recent backup rather than shifting inflation expectations. Key near-term catalysts include the September 4 employment report, September 11 CPI release, and the September 15–16 FOMC meeting with updated projections, which will clarify the balance between growth resilience and any potential rate adjustment.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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