Traders see the August 2026 U.S. temperature record market as tightly contested because ongoing El Niño strengthening and broad above-normal temperature outlooks favor elevated heat across the South, West, and Plains, yet early-month data show only limited all-time highs so far amid variable heat dome patterns. Recent July extremes that shattered records in states like Montana and Utah raised expectations for continuation, but forecasts also point to possible mid-to-late August cooldowns that could limit new all-time breaks at weather stations. With outcomes clustered near 32–39 percent, the balance hinges on whether persistent ridging produces widespread extremes or if scattered cool fronts and regional variability keep totals modest; incoming heat-wave intensity and station-specific monitoring over the next two weeks could quickly shift the distribution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСколько рекордов высоких температур будет побито на метеостанциях США в августе 2026 года?
Сколько рекордов высоких температур будет побито на метеостанциях США в августе 2026 года?
61–100 42%
21-60 37%
101-150 35%
151+ 35%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
15 сент. 2026 г.
0-20
43%
21-60
37%
61–100
42%
101-150
35%
151+
35%
61–100 42%
21-60 37%
101-150 35%
151+ 35%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
15 сент. 2026 г.
0-20
$54 Объем
43%
21-60
$0 Объем
37%
61–100
$0 Объем
42%
101-150
$0 Объем
35%
151+
$0 Объем
35%
This market resolves to the number shown in the "BROKEN" column of NOAA's Daily Weather Records tool when filtered to all-time record highs for August 2026. Tied records do not count. The tool is located at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records.
The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will resolve this market.
Full documentation of the GHCN-Daily dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily.
The market resolves on September 15, 2026, based on the value shown in the tool at that time. This reading is final. Any corrections, revisions, or additional data that NOAA processes after September 15 will not affect the outcome. September 15 snapshot may not include all August records due to reporting lag but will govern the resolution regardless.Traders see the August 2026 U.S. temperature record market as tightly contested because ongoing El Niño strengthening and broad above-normal temperature outlooks favor elevated heat across the South, West, and Plains, yet early-month data show only limited all-time highs so far amid variable heat dome patterns. Recent July extremes that shattered records in states like Montana and Utah raised expectations for continuation, but forecasts also point to possible mid-to-late August cooldowns that could limit new all-time breaks at weather stations. With outcomes clustered near 32–39 percent, the balance hinges on whether persistent ridging produces widespread extremes or if scattered cool fronts and regional variability keep totals modest; incoming heat-wave intensity and station-specific monitoring over the next two weeks could quickly shift the distribution.
This market resolves to the number shown in the "BROKEN" column of NOAA's Daily Weather Records tool when filtered to all-time record highs for August 2026. Tied records do not count. The tool is located at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records.
The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will resolve this market.
Full documentation of the GHCN-Daily dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily.
The market resolves on September 15, 2026, based on the value shown in the tool at that time. This reading is final. Any corrections, revisions, or additional data that NOAA processes after September 15 will not affect the outcome. September 15 snapshot may not include all August records due to reporting lag but will govern the resolution regardless.
The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will resolve this market.
Full documentation of the GHCN-Daily dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily.
The market resolves on September 15, 2026, based on the value shown in the tool at that time. This reading is final. Any corrections, revisions, or additional data that NOAA processes after September 15 will not affect the outcome. September 15 snapshot may not include all August records due to reporting lag but will govern the resolution regardless.
Открытие рынка: Jul 30, 2026, 2:51 PM ET
Объем
$54Дата окончания
15 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 30, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves to the number shown in the "BROKEN" column of NOAA's Daily Weather Records tool when filtered to all-time record highs for August 2026. Tied records do not count. The tool is located at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records.
The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will resolve this market.
Full documentation of the GHCN-Daily dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily.
The market resolves on September 15, 2026, based on the value shown in the tool at that time. This reading is final. Any corrections, revisions, or additional data that NOAA processes after September 15 will not affect the outcome. September 15 snapshot may not include all August records due to reporting lag but will govern the resolution regardless.Traders see the August 2026 U.S. temperature record market as tightly contested because ongoing El Niño strengthening and broad above-normal temperature outlooks favor elevated heat across the South, West, and Plains, yet early-month data show only limited all-time highs so far amid variable heat dome patterns. Recent July extremes that shattered records in states like Montana and Utah raised expectations for continuation, but forecasts also point to possible mid-to-late August cooldowns that could limit new all-time breaks at weather stations. With outcomes clustered near 32–39 percent, the balance hinges on whether persistent ridging produces widespread extremes or if scattered cool fronts and regional variability keep totals modest; incoming heat-wave intensity and station-specific monitoring over the next two weeks could quickly shift the distribution.
This market resolves to the number shown in the "BROKEN" column of NOAA's Daily Weather Records tool when filtered to all-time record highs for August 2026. Tied records do not count. The tool is located at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records.
The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will resolve this market.
Full documentation of the GHCN-Daily dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily.
The market resolves on September 15, 2026, based on the value shown in the tool at that time. This reading is final. Any corrections, revisions, or additional data that NOAA processes after September 15 will not affect the outcome. September 15 snapshot may not include all August records due to reporting lag but will govern the resolution regardless.
The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will resolve this market.
Full documentation of the GHCN-Daily dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily.
The market resolves on September 15, 2026, based on the value shown in the tool at that time. This reading is final. Any corrections, revisions, or additional data that NOAA processes after September 15 will not affect the outcome. September 15 snapshot may not include all August records due to reporting lag but will govern the resolution regardless.
Объем
$54Дата окончания
15 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 30, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see the August 2026 U.S. temperature record market as tightly contested because ongoing El Niño strengthening and broad above-normal temperature outlooks favor elevated heat across the South, West, and Plains, yet early-month data show only limited all-time highs so far amid variable heat dome patterns. Recent July extremes that shattered records in states like Montana and Utah raised expectations for continuation, but forecasts also point to possible mid-to-late August cooldowns that could limit new all-time breaks at weather stations. With outcomes clustered near 32–39 percent, the balance hinges on whether persistent ridging produces widespread extremes or if scattered cool fronts and regional variability keep totals modest; incoming heat-wave intensity and station-specific monitoring over the next two weeks could quickly shift the distribution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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