The 87.5% implied probability for yes reflects the continuing long-term global warming trend from rising greenhouse gas concentrations, which has produced successive record temperatures in recent years and makes new monthly highs highly likely even without extreme short-term drivers. As of mid-2026, January through April data from official monitoring networks already show near-record or record warmth in multiple regions, supported by neutral-to-weak La Niña conditions that have not offset the underlying anthropogenic signal. Historical baselines indicate that each additional year of accumulated heat increases the chance of surpassing prior monthly peaks, with climate model consensus projecting further upward pressure through the remainder of the year.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБудет ли любой месяц 2026 года самым жарким за всю историю?
Будет ли любой месяц 2026 года самым жарким за всю историю?
Да
$136,756 Объем
$136,756 Объем
10 янв. 2027 г.
Да
$136,756 Объем
$136,756 Объем
10 янв. 2027 г.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.The 87.5% implied probability for yes reflects the continuing long-term global warming trend from rising greenhouse gas concentrations, which has produced successive record temperatures in recent years and makes new monthly highs highly likely even without extreme short-term drivers. As of mid-2026, January through April data from official monitoring networks already show near-record or record warmth in multiple regions, supported by neutral-to-weak La Niña conditions that have not offset the underlying anthropogenic signal. Historical baselines indicate that each additional year of accumulated heat increases the chance of surpassing prior monthly peaks, with climate model consensus projecting further upward pressure through the remainder of the year.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Открытие рынка: Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
Объем
$136,756Дата окончания
10 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.The 87.5% implied probability for yes reflects the continuing long-term global warming trend from rising greenhouse gas concentrations, which has produced successive record temperatures in recent years and makes new monthly highs highly likely even without extreme short-term drivers. As of mid-2026, January through April data from official monitoring networks already show near-record or record warmth in multiple regions, supported by neutral-to-weak La Niña conditions that have not offset the underlying anthropogenic signal. Historical baselines indicate that each additional year of accumulated heat increases the chance of surpassing prior monthly peaks, with climate model consensus projecting further upward pressure through the remainder of the year.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Объем
$136,756Дата окончания
10 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 87.5% implied probability for yes reflects the continuing long-term global warming trend from rising greenhouse gas concentrations, which has produced successive record temperatures in recent years and makes new monthly highs highly likely even without extreme short-term drivers. As of mid-2026, January through April data from official monitoring networks already show near-record or record warmth in multiple regions, supported by neutral-to-weak La Niña conditions that have not offset the underlying anthropogenic signal. Historical baselines indicate that each additional year of accumulated heat increases the chance of surpassing prior monthly peaks, with climate model consensus projecting further upward pressure through the remainder of the year.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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