Recent enforcement trends show ICE removals running at a sustained pace of roughly 1,200–1,400 per day through early 2026, placing full-year totals near the 400,000–500,000 range once seasonal and logistical factors are accounted for. Arrest volumes have declined since their January peak while detention capacity fell from about 72,000 to 58,000, reflecting the administration’s shift toward quieter interior operations after high-profile city sweeps drew public pushback. Expanded funding and new expedited-removal authorities remain in place, yet court backlogs and coordination hurdles with foreign governments continue to constrain throughput. Traders price the two central brackets at 28.5 % and 30.5 % because the current trajectory could hold steady or dip modestly if arrest rates stay subdued, with upside separation possible only if daily removals accelerate materially before year-end.