Persistent security incidents, including recent tanker strikes and Iranian warnings against unauthorized routes, combined with 15-fold war-risk premiums and extreme crisis pressure, are suppressing visible commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz to roughly 3–5 AIS-tracked vessels daily versus a pre-2026 norm near 75–85. This environment creates tight clustering around the 20–34 ship weekly bins as traders weigh limited US-facilitated corridors, widespread AIS deactivation, ship-to-ship transfers, and pipeline diversions against potential short-term rebounds tied to any de-escalation signals. Elevated Brent levels near $100 underscore the market-implied odds as aggregated sentiment on constrained throughput rather than normalized flows, with resolution hinging on naval coordination and compliance enforcement through the October 5–11 window.